2010 WAC Fearless Predictions
Week 1 ... Sept. 4 Games
-
More College Football Picks (and NFL, too)
GAME OF THE WEEK
Boise State (0-0) at Virginia Tech (0-0) Landover, MD Sept. 6, 8:00, ESPN and ESPN3.com
Here’s The Deal … Let’s put it out there – this is the biggest game of the 2010 college football season. Of course Florida vs. Alabama, Oklahoma vs. Texas, and Ohio State vs. Wisconsin and Iowa will all be among the must-see games of the year, but no other game will have as much impact on the debates and the discourse as this one will no matter what the result turns out to be.
If Virginia Tech wins, then the ACC has a strong, strong victory over the third-ranked team in the nation and the league will gain a major measure of respect. Even more, the Hokies would throw their hat into the BCS Championship race discussion, even though there are a bazillion miles to go through a nasty ACC slate before dealing with Glendale. On the flip side, message boards, talk radio, and studio shows will have material for the next three months if Boise State wins this.
It’s not like the Broncos can coast to an unbeaten season if they beat the Hokies (Oregon State is no lightweight, but that’s a home game, and a trip to Nevada will be tough), but this is the one big landmine the team needs to sidestep. Now the spotlight is on, now the world is really going to be watching with a discerning eye, and now Boise State has the high ranking and the national respect to really and truly be a part of the national title discussion. It doesn’t have to be a pretty win, considering this is essentially going to be a Virginia Tech home game with Landover a reasonable drive from Blacksburg, but it just has to be a win. And if Boise State can dominate and make a big statement under the pressure of being the higher ranked team in a game of this magnitude, then it’ll easily be the biggest win in the program’s phenomenal recent history.
Why Boise State Might Win: Going into the 2009 opener at Boise State, Oregon talked a big, big game about how it was going to do huge things right away to show that the program, and the team, had arrived and would be a major factor throughout the year. While the Ducks ended up winning the Pac 10 title and went to the Rose Bowl thanks to the nation’s sixth-ranked rushing attack, they did absolutely nothing against the Boise State defensive front finishing with just 31 rushing yards and 152 yards of total offense. LaMichael James ran for 22 yards (on two carries) and LeGarrette Blount was held to -5 yards. TCU finished the season ranked fifth in the nation in rushing, and it was held to a mere 36 yards by the Broncos in the Fiesta Bowl. Virginia Tech will have an efficient passing game, but the offense is all about getting the ground game moving with Ryan Williams and Tyrod Taylor leading the way. Boise State erases running quarterbacks, and it should do the same with Taylor unlikely to get much room to breathe. The Broncos might not have a slew of All-Americans on the defensive front, but it allows absolutely nothing to most great running teams. Most.
Why Virginia Tech Might Win: Former Fresno State running back Ryan Mathews ripped off 234 yards and three scores against the Broncos as the Bulldogs dashed for 320 yards in a shootout loss last year. Nevada’s high-octane ground attack was held well below its average, but it was still effective. Virginia Tech has the right combination of experience on the offensive line and talent and depth in the backfield to keep throwing different options and the Boise State run defense, but coming up with huge numbers on the ground isn’t a must for a Hokie win. It took a miraculous late rally by Taylor and the Tech passing game, but the Hokies were able to beat Nebraska despite being held to 86 yards on the ground. Tech pushed Alabama in the opener despite running for just 64 yards. Granted, the team ran for 150 yards or more in nine of the ten wins, and it’ll need to get the ground game moving to keep the Bronco offense off the field, but don’t just assume that the Hokie offense won’t go anywhere just because the Boise State run defense is a brick wall.
What To Watch Out For: Yes, Virginia Tech can potentially win a defensive slugfest with Taylor having a smart, efficient day throwing the ball, but this game all comes down to whether or not the Hokie running game will work on a defense that gets everyone back on a front seven that was phenomenal against the run. Ryan Williams was held to under 100 yards in just three games last year, but he was able to get over the mark against Nebraska and Miami and wasn’t exactly held in check by Alabama or North Carolina. He’s still the main man for the attack, but the Hokies also welcome back Darren Evans, the star of 2008 with 1,265 yards and 11 scores, after suffering a torn ACL before last year began. The Hokies will have plenty of rushing options to play around with, and they’ll need to star.
What Will Happen: Don’t assume that Boise State will wet itself like it did in the 2005 opener at Georgia just because it’s Boise State. The program is in a different place, this team is loaded with veterans, and there’s the talent on both sides of the ball to beat the Hokies without it being any sort of an upset. This will be ugly the same way that the Boise State win over TCU in the Fiesta Bowl was, but the Hokies will get just enough out of the ground game, and an inspired effort from the defense, to squeak by. In a twist from most big games Boise State plays in, the Hokies will come up with the one quirky-gimmick play to turn the tide in a key spot.
CFN Prediction: Virginia Tech 17 … Boise State 13 … Line: Boise State -2.5
Must See Rating: Season Premiere: Keeping Up with the Kardashians 5 - Eat, Pray, Love 1 … 5
- Expert Football Predictions from ATS Consultants - Absolutely Free.
- Get Tickets For Your Team, Any Game
Eastern Washington (0-0) at Nevada (0-0) Sept. 2, 9:05 pm
Here’s The Deal … When we last saw Nevada, it’s record-setting offense was getting shut down cold in an embarrassing 45-10 Hawaii Bowl loss to SMU. Now the Wolf Pack will be trying to start things up right away on a high note before getting Colorado State, California, and BYU in a span of 14 days. Most of the key parts from the nation’s No. 1 rushing offense are back, but Eastern Washington is a decent Big Sky team with a terrific passing offense and should provide a very scary matchup. This isn’t going to be easy for the Pack.
Why Eastern Washington Might Win: Nevada’s pass defense hasn’t stopped anyone in years. Anyone who could throw the forward pass picked apart the Pac secondary that finished second-to-last in America last year, and it’s going to be a little while before things are appreciably better. EWU finished third in the FCS among passing offenses and was fourth overall, and with former SMU QB Bo Levi Mitchell at the helm, the air show should continue. Consider it a shock of the Eagles don’t come up with at least 300 yards through the air.
Why Nevada Might Win: EWU has a decent run defense, but it’s not going to be special. Linebacker J.C. Sherritt is a special playmaker, but he’s not going to be enough stop a Nevada ground game that should every bit as potent as last year. California ran for 342 yards on the Eagles and the better FCS running teams were able to crank out big yards. If Nevada doesn’t control the game with well over 300 yards on the ground, be shocked.
What To Watch Out For: How sharp will the Nevada ground game be right away? With leading receiver Brandon Wimberly trying to come back from knee problems, and with the receiver depth a bit lacking, it’ll be all ground game, all the time, and the key will be to see how the new parts mix in. QB Colin Kaepernick is the conductor of the show, and Vai Taua is back after finishing eighth in the nation, but Luke Lippincott is gone and Nevada will try out several new options to see who can keep the production rolling.
What Will Happen: EWU’s passing game will provide a whale of a scare, but Nevada will come up with 400 yards on the ground and will pull away late in the third. This will be a fun shootout with a ton of big stats for both sides.
CFN Prediction: Nevada 48 … Eastern Washington 27 … Line: No Line
Must See Rating: Season Premiere: Keeping Up with the Kardashians 5 - Eat, Pray, Love 1 … 2
- Expert Football Predictions from ATS Consultants - Absolutely Free.
- Get Tickets For Your Team, Any Game
Eastern Washington (0-0) at Nevada (0-0) Sept. 2, 9:05 pm
Here’s The Deal … When we last saw Nevada, it’s record-setting offense was getting shut down cold in an embarrassing 45-10 Hawaii Bowl loss to SMU. Now the Wolf Pack will be trying to start things up right away on a high note before getting Colorado State, California, and BYU in a span of 14 days. Most of the key parts from the nation’s No. 1 rushing offense are back, but Eastern Washington is a decent Big Sky team with a terrific passing offense and should provide a very scary matchup. This isn’t going to be easy for the Pack.
Why Eastern Washington Might Win: Nevada’s pass defense hasn’t stopped anyone in years. Anyone who could throw the forward pass picked apart the Pac secondary that finished second-to-last in America last year, and it’s going to be a little while before things are appreciably better. EWU finished third in the FCS among passing offenses and was fourth overall, and with former SMU QB Bo Levi Mitchell at the helm, the air show should continue. Consider it a shock of the Eagles don’t come up with at least 300 yards through the air.
Why Nevada Might Win: EWU has a decent run defense, but it’s not going to be special. Linebacker J.C. Sherritt is a special playmaker, but he’s not going to be enough stop a Nevada ground game that should every bit as potent as last year. California ran for 342 yards on the Eagles and the better FCS running teams were able to crank out big yards. If Nevada doesn’t control the game with well over 300 yards on the ground, be shocked.
What To Watch Out For: How sharp will the Nevada ground game be right away? With leading receiver Brandon Wimberly trying to come back from knee problems, and with the receiver depth a bit lacking, it’ll be all ground game, all the time, and the key will be to see how the new parts mix in. QB Colin Kaepernick is the conductor of the show, and Vai Taua is back after finishing eighth in the nation, but Luke Lippincott is gone and Nevada will try out several new options to see who can keep the production rolling.
What Will Happen: EWU’s passing game will provide a whale of a scare, but Nevada will come up with 400 yards on the ground and will pull away late in the third. This will be a fun shootout with a ton of big stats for both sides.
CFN Prediction: Nevada 48 … Eastern Washington 27 … Line: No Line
Must See Rating: Season Premiere: Keeping Up with the Kardashians 5 - Eat, Pray, Love 1 … 2
- Expert Football Predictions from ATS Consultants - Absolutely Free.
- Get Tickets For Your Team, Any Game
USC (0-0) at Hawaii (0-0) Sept. 2, 11:00 ET, ESPN
Here’s The Deal … Yup, USC is still playing games this season. After all that’s happened away from the field to the Trojans this offseason, it’s easy to forget that there are still 13 games to be played on the schedule. Exactly 13 games since the school won’t be eligible for the postseason for the next two years. A visit to the islands, an inverse bowl game of sorts, marks the debut of Lane Kiffin as Troy’s leader and the first chance to gauge the motivation of a suddenly deflated program. For Hawaii, it’s a rare chance to host a nationally-recognized opponent not named Boise State. The Warriors are trying to bounce back from their own bowl-less postseason, just the second time that’s happened in the last eight years. It shakes out as a pivotal season for third-year coach Greg McMackin, who’s done little to build on the success of June Jones.
Why USC Might Win: While the Trojans have the obvious edge in talent and depth, it’ll be most evident in the trenches. The retooled Hawaii offensive line, which has just one returning starter, will be no match for the USC front wall, especially the inside-outside combo of Jurrell Casey and Armond Armstead, respectively. Casey, in particular, might spend half the night in the Warrior backfield if he’s not doubled. On offense, the Trojans can flex their muscles with C Kris O’Dowd and T Tyron Smith, who’ll help pave the way for
new starting running backs Marc Tyler, who won the
gig over Allen Bradford, to be the game’s offensive MVP.
Why Hawaii Might Win: To have a chance in this type of game, the Warriors will need to open up the passing game and test the completely reconfigured USC secondary. It’s a good thing QB Bryant Moniz has returned from a personal leave, where a scholarship is waiting for the former walk-on. He’s capable of building on a solid debut as the starter, with help from a dangerous collection of receivers. Greg Salas and Kealoha Pilares combined for 172 receptions in 2009, and Rodney Bradley caught five touchdown passes in six games before being lost to a broken leg.
What To Watch Out For: In an otherwise miserable offseason in Los Angeles, senior CB Shareece Wright has been Troy’s flower in the desert. A study in perseverance, he’s overcome an injury and academic headaches over the last two years to position himself to be an NFL scout magnet this fall. He’s played as well as any Trojan defender this offseason, and should be avoided at all costs by Moniz on Thursday.
What Will Happen: While USC is a markedly better team than Hawaii, everyone wants to know how much intensity the Trojans will bring to this road trip. There’ll be enough to make the game lopsided by the middle of the second quarter. With
Tyler running over Warrior defenders and Matt Barkley firing strikes to WR Ronald Johnson and TE Jordan Cameron, they’ll make some much-needed headlines for something other than off-field headaches.
CFN Prediction: USC 41 … Hawaii 13 … Line: USC -21
Must See Rating: Season Premiere: Keeping Up with the Kardashians 5 - Eat, Pray, Love 1… 2
- Receive FREE selections, Free Weekly Newsletters and much more from ATS Consultants
- Get Tickets For Your Team, Any Game
Utah State (0-0) at Oklahoma (0-0) Sept. 4, 7:00
Here’s The Deal … Utah State is far better, far more talented, and far more promising under second year head man Gary Andersen, and there’s a good chance that if everything breaks right, this could be a surprise bowl season for a program that has known little success. While 2010 could be a breakthrough season, sort of like Idaho enjoyed last year, it’s not going to start in Norman. Oklahoma lost its opener to BYU last year in a Sam Bradford shoulder-crunching disaster, but that game was played in Texas. The Sooners go ballistic in their home openers winning their last three by a total score of 200 to 12. While USU might be better than the Idaho State, UT Chattanooga, and North Texas teams that were caught in the past of recent destructions, this should mostly be an exercise in seeing what the OU attack can do before dealing with Florida State. Considering the way OU struggled at the end of last year, anything less than complete and total annihilation will set off panic sirens.
Why Utah State Might Win: The Aggies need to win the turnover battle by a ten-mile wide margin to keep this from becoming brutal. They finished 24th in the nation in turnover margin last season, and while the Sooners finished 36th, quarterback Landry Jones had his rough patches with 14 interceptions on the year. Five came in one game against Nebraska as he threw at least one in four of the last five games.
Why Oklahoma Might Win: Utah State is lacking in offensive playmakers. USU has to come up with several big plays. RB Robert Turbin cranked out 1,296 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns last season, but he tore his ACL this offseason and hasn’t been able to recover in time for the season. Making matters even worse is the loss of Stanley Morrison, the team’s leading receiver, to a broken foot. The hope was for the nation’s 15th ranked offense to be ready to rock and roll in a huge season, but that’s not going to happen unless it gets a huge game from …
What To Watch Out For: The only hope the Aggies have of keeping this close is if QB Diondre Borel gets on the move. Borel, who ranked 15th in the nation in total offense and led the WAC, is a tremendous all-around talent and the type of baller who can try to keep plays alive and give the OU defense a few major fits. The rest of the players might not be in place to keep up in any sort of a shootout, but if Borel can get hot for a stretch, this could be a wee bit more interesting than the Sooners might like.
What Will Happen: The Sooners will stretch their legs a little bit. The defensive front seven will bottle up Borel, and there won’t be nearly enough support from the rest of the Aggies to pick up the slack in any way. OU will call off the dogs in the fourth quarter and will still win in a walk.
CFN Prediction: Oklahoma 48 … Utah State 3 … Line: Oklahoma -31.5
Must See Rating: Season Premiere: Keeping Up with the Kardashians 5 - Eat, Pray, Love 1 … 1.5
- Expert Football Predictions from ATS Consultants - Absolutely Free.
- Get Tickets For Your Team, Any Game
San Jose State (0-0) at Alabama (0-0) Sept. 4, 7:00, ESPN3.com
Here’s The Deal … The entire college football world will be watching to see just how new San Jose State head coach Mike MacIntyre does as he tries to pump up the struggling program. And for those interested in such things, the defending national champions are also going to be part of the fun. With Penn State coming up next, Alabama desperately needs all sixty minutes of this game to get all the new starters on defense (potentially ten) up to speed, while folding in the twos would also be a nice plus to get a little bit of on-field time before the real fun begins. Coming off a 2-10 campaign with only one win over an FCS team, without two of its best players (more on that in a moment), and with only one win over a BCS team (a 35-34 victory over a Stanford team that went 1-11 in 2006) in seven-plus years, San Jose State isn’t going to win this game. The Spartans will be a punching bag against a Bama team looking to flex a little muscle in an easy-going scrimmage, but they should be fun-bad with a little bit of potential to hit on a few big pass plays. More than anything else, the reason to watch is to see how the offense and the running game works with reigning Heisman winner Mark Ingram on the shelf with a knee injury. How will the rest of the team look? Take a guess … it should be a nice live exercise for the defending national champion.
Why San Jose State Might Win: The Alabama defense could need a little while to figure out what it’s doing. That might be a reach considering how much four and five star talent there is across the board, but the Tide is starting from near-scratch at some positions and could be a bit inconsistent early on. The Spartans will be ditching the spread (to a point) and will go with a more conventional attack with more downfield passing, so the potential is there for a few mistakes by the still-emerging Bama D to lead to a few scores. The receiving corps should be SJSU’s strength.
Why Alabama Might Win: Coming out of spring ball, San Jose State had three players who might be able to see regular playing time on Alabama. Safety Duke Ihenacho would be a starter, receiver Marquis Avery would be a number two target, maybe a three, and Tanner Burns would be a key backup safety if not a starting nickel back. Ihenacho is fine, but Burns, the team’s leading tackler last year, left for Kansas State, and Avery, the team’s leading receiver, flunked out. The Spartans could hardly afford to be without top playmakers going into this game, and now the talent level is that much lower.
What To Watch Out For: The Alabama passing game. Even with Ingram out, Trent Richardson and the Alabama running game could pound out 250 yards if that was the sole focus, but that doesn’t do anyone any good. The Tide must use this game to work on other aspects to tighten up early on, and getting Julio Jones and the receivers involved early on is a must to give teams on the schedule reason to worry about more than just getting hammered on. Greg McElroy was solid early on last year before struggling in the middle of the season, and he finished the year with only 31 yards against Texas. He has to be razor-sharp, while it’s time for Jones to come up with an NFL-first rounder type of performance.
What Will Happen: Alabama will call its shot. MacIntyre will try to get the passing game going, but the pressure from the revamped Bama defense will be too much to expect and consistent Spartan offense. The Tide second team will be on display very, very early in the second half, while McElroy will complete over 75% of his throws.
CFN Prediction: Alabama 45 … San Jose State 6 Line: Alabama -41
Must See Rating: Season Premiere: Keeping Up with the Kardashians 5 - Eat, Pray, Love 1 … 1.5
- Expert Football Predictions from ATS Consultants - Absolutely Free.
- Get Tickets For Your Team, Any Game
Louisiana Tech (0-0) vs. Grambling State (0-0) Sept. 4, 7:00 ET
Here’s The Deal … Derek Dooley had Louisiana Tech pointed in the right direction before he got scooped up by Tennessee in the offseason. Actually getting the Bulldogs to turn the corner is now in the hands of Sonny Dykes, who’s bringing the pass-happy Air Raid offense to Ruston. He inherits personnel that was designed for a very different kind of attack, so it could take some time before everyone is operating in unison. Despite being just five miles apart, this will be just the first meeting ever between Louisiana Tech and Grambling State. Despite going 7-4 and knocking off rival Southern in the Bayou Classic, there was a sense that the Tigers missed their mark last year. They get a chance to regroup and capture a SWAC West crown that belonged to upstart Prairie View A&M in 2009.
Why Louisiana Tech Might Win: Yes, he’s going to hit speed bumps along the way, but Dykes has to like the athletes he inherited on offense. In particular, WR Phillip Livas is a dynamite all-around playmaker and LSU transfer Tim Molton has all of the raw skills to flourish on the opposite side in this attack. He’ll be hooking up with another SEC product, former Auburn recruit Steve Ensminger, who won a hotly-contested battle at quarterback. Not only do the Bulldogs return all five of last year’s starting linemen, but they might not have to face All-American DE Christian Anthony, who was hospitalized in the middle of August with chest pains.
Why Grambling State Might Win: The Tigers return last three year’s top three rushers from a team that’s capable of extending drives and producing long gainers on the ground. For starters, Frank Warren and Cornelius Walker form a solid one-two punch, each scoring seven touchdowns on the ground and earning a spot on the All-SWAC second team. Grambling will be content to use its two workhorses liberally, pounding away at a Louisiana Tech front wall that’s going to be a defensive liability this season.
What To Watch Out For: As Grambling State breaks in a new quarterback, it’s going to lean even heavier on the running game, which means Warren and Walker will spend all night trying to avoid No. 44, Louisiana Tech LB Adrien Cole. One of the WAC’s premier defensive players, he’s tough against the run, shedding blocks and using his leverage to sift through the traffic and unload on ballcarriers. This is one of those times when Cole could be on target for 15 tackles and a couple of forced fumbles.
What Will Happen: It ought to be an interesting atmosphere in Shreveport, as nearby Louisiana Tech and Grambling State meet for the first time. It’ll also mark the debut of Dykes, who’s looking for a fast start with his new employer. Through the misfires and mental mistakes, the Bulldogs will get enough from Ensminger and the passing game to zip past the one-dimensional Tigers.
CFN Prediction: Louisiana Tech 31 … Grambling State 20 … Line:
No Line
Must See Rating: Season Premiere: Keeping Up with the Kardashians 5 - Eat, Pray, Love 1 … 1
- Expert Football Predictions from ATS Consultants - Absolutely Free.
- Get Tickets For Your Team, Any Game
Cincinnati (0-0) at Fresno State (0-0) Sept. 4, 10:00, ESPN2
Here’s The Deal … So what’s life going to be like in Cincinnati now that Brian Kelly is in South Bend? A cross-country trip to the Valley will begin to provide a few clues. While the Bearcats are the two-time defending Big East champs, you wouldn’t know it by listening to the chatter in the offseason. Most expect the program to drift back into obscurity without the primary architect and a few of his key weapons on offense and defense. New head coach Butch Jones has a different plan that includes making the doubters look silly as the season unfolds. Fresno State got some good news when it learned that Boise State was leaving for the Mountain West in 2011, meaning that elusive outright WAC crown may soon be within reach. For now, the Bulldogs appear relegated to another second-tier bowl game, though Pat Hill always relishes the opportunity to knock off bigger schools brave enough to schedule him in September.
Why Cincinnati Might Win: The rumors of Cincy’s offensive demise have been greatly exaggerated. Even without QB Tony Pike and WR Mardy Gilyard, the Bearcats still have enough gifted holdovers to once again hang up impressive numbers. For starters, QB Zach Collaros will prove to be an ideal fit for this attack, blending an accurate arm with the ability to pick up first downs with his feet. He’ll get ample support from a nice collection of skill players, including RB Isaiah Pead, TE Ben Guidugli, and receivers Armon Binns, D.J. Woods, and Vidal Hazelton. Cincinnati is going to score on a Fresno State D that’s had problems getting to the passer, stopping the run, and creating turnovers.
Why Fresno State Might Win: If the Bearcat staff is losing sleep in the offseason, it’s likely over a defense that lost six starters and wilted down the stretch in 2009. DT Derek Wolfe aside, there’s not a lot of star power on this side of the ball, which the Bulldogs plan to exploit. They’ve got a fantastic, bulldozing offensive line that returns five starters, including next-level G Andrew Jackson. It’ll be blocking for RB Robbie Rouse, a budding sophomore star, and steady QB Ryan Colburn. It’s that balance which is going to cause all kinds of problems for the Cincinnati defense.
What To Watch Out For: Collaros got introduced to the country in the middle of last season, but now he’s ready to have his coming-out party. After already proving he can play in an emergency setting, he’s had a full offseason to prepare for this moment, and will get a ton of help from the gifted athletes surrounding him. He has a chance to be one of the offensive heroes of the first weekend.
What Will Happen: Those sticking around until early Sunday morning will be rewarded with one of the most entertaining games of the day. Cincinnati and Fresno State will both move up and down the field freely, punting only when completely necessary. In the end, the Bearcats will have a few too many weapons in the arsenal, out gunning the Bulldogs in a shootout.
CFN Prediction: Cincinnati 34 … Fresno State 30 … Line: Cincinnati -1.5
Must See Rating: Season Premiere: Keeping Up with the Kardashians 5 - Eat, Pray, Love 1… 3.5
- Receive FREE selections, Free Weekly Newsletters and much more from ATS Consultants
- Get Tickets For Your Team, Any Game