2010 SEC Fearless Predictions
Week 1 ... Sept. 4 Games
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GAME OF THE WEEK
LSU (0-0) at North Carolina (0-0) in Atlanta Sept. 4, 8:00, ABC
Here’s The Deal … Alright, ACC, if you really, really want to take a huge step forward and show that you’re ready to become more of a player on a national scale, this is the type of game you have to win. The conference has had the misfortune of dealing with Alabama in the last two season-openers in Atlanta, (with the Tide making a major statement in 2008 with a 34-10 win over Clemson, and starting out last year’s national title run with a 34-24 victory over Virginia Tech), but this year’s LSU doesn’t appear to be national title-good while this year’s North Carolina team has a defense with more talent than either of those two Tide teams (including last year’s version).
The ACC took a decent step forward in the last game of 2009 with Virginia Tech whacking around Tennessee 37-14 in the Chick-fil-A Bowl, but that flew a bit too much under the radar to matter. In this game, North Carolina has to come out roaring with the culmination of several great recruiting classes by Butch Davis leading to a laughably-loaded stockpile of NFL defensive talent for pro scouts to drool over … even if some of the key parts might be missing. Of course, LSU has more than its share of future millionaires, too, and respect-wise, the program, and mostly head coach Les Miles, must show that all the talent isn’t going to waste. Considering the Tigers have won two national titles in the last seven years, going 17-9 in the last two seasons, and with Alabama taking over the role as the West’s alpha dog, the pressure is on to start strong. With the SEC schedule kicking off the week after against Vanderbilt, and with West Virginia and Florida looming a few weeks from now, a loss to the Tar Heels would set a full-blown blaze under the Miles hot seat.
This is one of those special, tone-setting matchups that will be analyzed and used in a variety of conference vs. conference arguments throughout the rest of the year. If North Carolina wins, all of a sudden, the ACC looks like a league worthy of getting far more respect, and if LSU wins, it’s business as usual and all is right with the SEC’s world.
Why LSU Might Win: Can North Carolina score? The Tar Heels finished 108th in the nation in total offense and 102nd in passing with most of the production coming against The Citadel and Georgia Southern. While the defense might be top notch, if LSU can put up some points early and force the UNC offense to try to get something going to catch up, there will be big problems. The UNC receivers might be better, but the passing game is hardly high-octane enough to do too much damage against Patrick Peterson and the loaded LSU secondary. After a disappointing season, and with the Tar Heel defense getting all the headlines, the LSU defense, especially the line, will be looking to show that things have changed. As good as the Tar Heel defense might be talent-wise, it needs to show it can shut a strong offense down cold.
Why North Carolina Might Win: End Robert Quinn, tackle Martin Austin, corners Kendric Burney and Charles Brown, linebackers Quan Sturdivant and Bruce Carter, safety Deunta Williams … it’s not an overstatement to suggest that North Carolina has at least six defensive players who’ll go in the first round in the 2011 NFL Draft, and it’s not crazy to think that several other Tar Heels won’t be earning pro paychecks in the very near future. Even if some of them are ineligible (more on that in a moment), the defense is still loaded with great prospects and fantastic reserves. The LSU offensive line was underwhelming two years ago, a disaster last year, and is a potential problem early on this year if the pass protection isn’t far better. Facing an NFL defensive front with two of the possible top five picks in the draft in Quinn and Austin, it could be a long, long day for a line that’s hoping to be more physical and more effective on Day One. LSU allowed 37 sacks last year, while UNC led the ACC in sacks and was third in tackles for loss. Uh oh.
What To Watch Out For: LSU QB Jordan Jefferson vs. the Tar Heel defense. However,
Austin has been suspended indefinitely. Will Quinn be eligible? He’s having problems with the allegation that he received extra and improper academic help. It has been reported that Burney might not even be a part of the program anymore, while Brown is also in trouble. This has been a distraction, to say the least, but the defense should still be nasty enough to give the LSU offense problems. Thrown to the wolves as a true freshman, Jefferson came up with a decent final three games of the 2008 season as a caretaker for the attack, but he didn’t make any great strides with an inconsistent and banged up 2009. It’s not that he doesn’t have talent, and it’s not that he doesn’t have weapons around him, but he didn’t have any time to operate. Considering the lack of time and all the problems, he was surprisingly effective against some of the best defensive lines on the slate throwing for 202 yards against Penn State, 250 yards against Ole Miss, and 212 yards against Georgia. However, he had a nightmare of a time against Florida and was kept under wraps by Alabama. As good as the Gators and Tide were, Jefferson hasn’t faced anything like he’s about to deal with. If he comes up with a strong performance in a win, all of a sudden, LSU might look like a real, live threat to Alabama in the SEC West race.
What Will Happen: North Carolina will establish its dominance early on defensively, but so will LSU. The special teams will be strong for both sides, each will come up with a few key takeaways, and each will miss on some big opportunities after getting stuffed by the other’s defense. The two defenses will be equally strong, but Jefferson will be the offensive difference maker as he connects on two big passes late to lead LSU to a very rough, very tough win for the SEC.
CFN Prediction: LSU 17 … North Carolina 13 … Line: LSU -1
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Southern Miss (0-0) at South Carolina (0-0) Sept. 2, 7:30 ET, ESPN
Here’s The Deal … For the third straight year, South Carolina opens the season on a Thursday night in front of a national TV audience. And for a third straight year, everyone is wondering if this is the season Steve Spurrier gets the Gamecocks into SEC contention. Sure, there have been moments over the last five years, but too few to consider his tenure in Columbia a success. Expectations are high again, which won’t go away as long as Spurrier is in charge. With East Carolina in rebuilding mode, there’s going to be a void at the Conference USA adult table. Southern Miss believes it’s poised to fill it. The Golden Eagles enter their third season with Larry Fedora on the sidelines, and have the right parts on offense and defense to finally get out of neutral. Not unlike this week’s host, Southern Miss has been steady for years, but is still waiting to break through and ascend beyond mediocrity.
Why Southern Miss Might Win: The Eagles are a solid, experienced program that won’t unravel at the sight of Williams-Brice Stadium. It’s just not that kind of Conference USA team. The offense is diverse, reconnecting QB Austin Davis with SEC-caliber WR DeAndre Brown and unveiling an underrated stable of young backs to succeed Damion Fletcher. Under Fedora, who also worked for Florida in the past, Southern Miss will keep defenses on their heels with a mix of plays and formations. The defensive front seven will hold an edge on a questionable Gamecock offensive line, providing pressure all night from NT Anthony Gray, DE Cordarro Law, and LB Korey Williams.
Why South Carolina Might Win: The Gamecock O-line may have issues, but on the other sideline, the problems are much bigger. Southern Miss is replacing four starters and has little experience, which will prompt defensive coordinator Ellis Johnson to dial up as much pressure as possible. South Carolina’s edge in the trenches will be pronounced, especially since powerful DT Travian Robertson is back from injury to join vets Cliff Matthews, Ladi Ajiboye, and Devin Taylor. The weak link of the Eagle D will be the secondary, which the ‘Cocks will exploit whenever possible. If QB Stephen Garcia can hit his stride, he’ll have no problem hooking up with receivers gifted Alshon Jeffery and Tori Gurley.
What To Watch Out For: It’ll be worth paying close attention to No. 5 in the home uniform, South Carolina CB Stephon Gilmore. Not only will he be going stride-for-stride with the other team’s No. 5, Brown, but he could also take direct snaps in South Carolina’s “Wild Gamecock” formation. Just a true sophomore, he’s one of the rising young stars in the SEC.
What Will Happen: This is a possible landmine game for South Carolina. And Spurrier knows it. The Golden Eagles will be prepared and jacked for the opportunity to make a national splash. The Gamecocks, however, will survive on the strength of the defense, which will dominate at the point of attack and help fuel an edge in turnover margin. The duel at quarterback between Garcia and Davis is an intriguing one, with both carrying interesting sub plots into the match up.
CFN Prediction: South Carolina 27 … Southern Miss 20 … Line:
South Carolina -14
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Miami University (0-0) at Florida (0-0) Sept. 4, 12 pm ET, ESPN & ESPN3.com
Here’s The Deal … Miami vs. Florida might sound fun and interesting, but the RedHawks aren’t exactly the Hurricanes. In Year Two under head coach Mike Haywood, MU is trying to find something positive to build on after a rough 1-11 2009, but in this game, just being able to hang around for a little while will be enough. There’s a ten-mile wide gap in talent, but the RedHawks have just enough firepower to put a few points on the board. The main focus, though, will be to see how sharp Florida will be after a rough and occasionally weird last 12 months. From the loss of Tim Tebow, along with a slew of other All-America talent, to issues with Urban Meyer’s health and his bunker, combative mentality, everyone around Gainesville needs a nice, easy blowout win. Anything less than a light scrimmage will sound off panic alarms with South Florida and Tennessee to follow, but it’ll take something special for RedHawks to pose much of a challenge. MU has some decent offensive talent and one of the MAC’s most promising secondaries, but it’ll take several Florida screw-ups to keep this interesting. The last Gator season-opener that was closer than 20 points was a 21-6 win over Southern Miss in 1997, and the last time Florida lost the first game of the year was in 1989 in a 24-19 gaffe to Ole Miss.
Why Miami Might Win: It’s not like Miami can’t move the ball. Armed with the MAC’s best returning quarterback, Zac Dysert, and a potent receiving corps that should help MU average around 300 passing yards per game, the potential is there to connect on just enough big plays against a retooled Florida defense to make the Gator coaches angry. New MU offensive coordinator Morris Watts will forget about a ground game that’ll be lucky to get 50 net yards, and it’ll be bombs away from the start. While Dysert might put up decent yards …
Why Florida Might Win: … he could get killed behind a porous offensive line. The RedHawks gave up a nation-worst 58 sacks last year, and while the focus this offseason was on keeping the quarterback upright, it’s not like there will be a night-and-day difference against a Florida defensive front looking to make a statement right away. The Gator offensive line won’t have to worry about much of a pass rush, and this isn’t going to be the type of ball-hawking MU defense that could force a slew of big turnovers to provide any sort of an upset bid.
What To Watch Out For: Call it the G.O.A.T. (Game One After Tim). No one’s expecting Florida starting QB John Brantley to be the legend that Tebow was, but there are many interested scouts and fans interested in seeing if the hype and potential can all come together right away to form a whale of an NFL prospect. Brantley has a next-level arm and passing skills that Tebow could only dream of owning, but the production has to come. He won’t be under any pressure and should have ten days to throw, so it should be target practice for the junior star-in-waiting. Meanwhile, a few NFL types will be closely watching to see how Dysert handles himself. The 6-4, 207-pound sophomore has pro tools and good rushing ability. While he’ll struggle at times, he needs to be fantastic to keep the game from getting out of hand early.
What Will Happen: Under Meyer, Florida has won its last five home openers by a combined score of 233 to 37, or an average of 46.6 to 7.4. Look for the Gators to flex some muscle, even though there will be a few rough patches along the way.
CFN Prediction: Florida 55 … Miami University 10 … Line: Florida -35
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Louisiana (0-0) at Georgia (0-0) Sept. 4, 12:21, ESPN3.com
Here’s The Deal … After a disappointing 8-5 season, despite a nice finish winning four of the final five games including a 44-20 win over Texas A&M in the Independence Bowl, Georgia has to come out roaring. Unlike last year when the Dawgs started out with a brutal trip to Oklahoma State (and a loss), they get a tune-up before diving into the SEC slate with a date at South Carolina next week. With three conference games in a row followed up by a trip to Colorado, anything less than a stomping over the Sun Belt will send Dawg fans into their panic room. Louisiana has the depth and the experience to be extremely pesky, and considering this is the opening week, the potential is there for this to be an occasionally tight, sloppy game. The Ragin’ Cajuns get a key Sun Belt game against Arkansas State next week, but they’re hoping to get the inconsistent Georgia team of last year and they’re not simply looking to hang around.
Why Louisiana Might Win: The ULL offensive is just quirky enough to be more than a pushover. QB Chris Masson is one of the Sun Belt’s better passers with a live, accurate arm, and now the training wheels will be off as the offense is his to run. With backup quarterback Blaine Gautier hurt, former starter-turned-running back Brad McGuire will be the No. 2, and he’s a good Wildcat option who could throw a curveball at the Georgia defense. The Dawgs were miserable last year at taking the ball away, while Louisiana was among the Sun Belt’s best in turnover margin. If the Ragin’ Cajuns can be +2 or better, they’ll keep it close.
Why Georgia Might Win: The Louisiana defensive front is hurting. The last thing the Ragin’ Cajuns need is to have problems on the line against Georgia’s offensive front, possibly the best in America, but that’s what they’re dealing with as top pass rushing prospect, Terrell Richardson, has a head injury while Nate Douglas and Tyrell Gaddies have hamstring problems. There’s decent depth, but not enough to provide any sort of consistent pressure into the Dawg backfield. That’s a huge plus considering all eyes will be on …
What To Watch Out For: Georgia starting QB Aaron Murray. It’s not like last year’s starter, Joe Cox was miserable, but he wasn’t Matthew Stafford and he was wildly inconsistent. Almost everything else should be in place for Georgia with an improved defensive scheme, an amazing defensive backfield, a killer offensive line, and great running backs and receivers that can explode. Now it’s up to Murray, a short, big-armed redshirt freshman, to earn his stripes right away. With a road game at South Carolina next week, he has to use this game to show that he can be the conductor of a loaded team.
What Will Happen: Running game, running game, running game. Georgia will control the game and the tempo on the ground, while the field will be tilted to Louisiana’s side of the field for most of the game. This isn’t going to be pretty, but Georgia will be efficient, effective, and it’ll come away with a good tune-up win before diving into bigger and better things.
CFN Prediction: Georgia 37 … Louisiana 6 … Line: Georgia -28
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Kentucky (0-0) at Louisville (0-0) Sept. 4, 3:30 ET, ABC
Here’s The Deal … Joker Phillips was a coach-in-waiting before Rich Brooks retired at Kentucky. Louisville’s Charlie Strong was just plain tired of waiting for the right program to offer him his first head job. The two rookies debut in the 23rd meeting for the Governor’s Cup. Strong is looking to erase all remnants of predecessor Steve Kragthorpe, who guided the program to its worst three-year stretch since the mid-1990s. Although you can clearly win big at this school, the roster reveals that it won’t be a short-term rebuilding project. While Strong is new to Louisville, Phillips has been in Lexington since 2003 and knows his personnel on an intimate level. He takes over a program that’s been to four consecutive bowl games, three that it won. In a series marked by its streaky nature, the Wildcats are on a three-game run to take control of bragging rights in the Commonwealth.
Why Kentucky Might Win: Strong is going to turn around the Louisville defense, but not this quickly. He has a dearth of talent, depth, and playmakers that the Wildcats plan to exploit. While shaky in the past, and without a firm grip on the starting gig, QB Mike Hartline returns with 21 games of experience and a couple of very talented all-stars at his disposal. Derrick Locke was named to first team All-SEC in the preseason and WR Randall Cobb is one of the country’s more versatile weapons. More than just the team’s top receiver, he’s also a running threat out of the WildCobb … and the best player on either roster for this game.
Why Louisville Might Win: Phillips’ biggest concern heading into 2010 revolves around a defense that lost most of its best players to graduation, early departures, and academic suspensions. Stopping the run is going to be especially challenging this fall. Enter Victor Anderson, the lone Cardinal star, who missed most of last season to injury. When healthy, he’s a game-changer, with the luxury of running behind a veteran line flush with returning starters. For good measure, Louisville will also turn loose Bilal Powell, a seasoned runner coming off a terrific offseason.
What To Watch Out For: Someone needs to step up, make plays, and provide some leadership on defense for Kentucky in 2010. It’s a void the staff feels junior LB Danny Trevathan is ready to fill. Despite playing part of the season with a broken wrist, he still finished second on the team with 82, and could get into double-digits on Saturday, as Louisville tries to exploit cracks in the running lanes.
What Will Happen: As Strong and Phillips both attempt to gain control of the state, from fans to recruits, this is a pretty important opening act for both rookie coaches. With major question marks on both sidelines, it’s the kind of game that could set the tone for both schools. While Kentucky is vulnerable, especially on the road, it’ll get bailed out by its offensive stars, Locke and Cobb. Both will score in a decisive second half that propels the ‘Cats to a fourth straight win in this rivalry.
CFN Prediction: Kentucky 31 … Louisville 23 … Line: Kentucky -3
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Jacksonville State (0-0) at Ole Miss (0-0) Sept. 4, 3:30, ESPN3.com
Here’s The Deal … Ole Miss should be able to win without a problem, but Jacksonville State isn’t your normal FCS walkover. The star of the Ohio Valley Conference last year, JSU dominated at times but was ineligible to go to the playoffs because of academic issues. QB Ryan Perrilloux is gone, but the Gamecocks should still be potent enough to challenge for the OVC title with a veteran team and a strong defense. Ole Miss has to replace a quarterback, too, and it thought it was going to get a major boost with former Oregon Duck Jeremiah Masoli under center, but he was denied his eligibility for this year by the NCAA. He’ll get a year to become used to being a Rebel, and now it’ll be up to Nathan Stanley to show what he can do right away. For Ole Miss, this starts an easy September with Tulane coming up next week and Vanderbilt to follow, while JSU opens up slate against Chattanooga.
Why Jacksonville State Might Win: Ole Miss should define what it means to work the kinks out. With several key new players in the mix, especially at quarterback, this might be a bit of a rough start to the season. The passing game hasn’t exactly clicked in this offseason, and JSU had one of the FCS’s best pass defenses holding teams to just 155 yards per game. With corners A.J. Davis and T.J. Heath back, the Gamecocks should be able to force the Rebels to be one-dimensional at times.
Why Ole Miss Might Win: JSU has to run effectively to win, and that’s not going to happen against the Rebel defensive front. The Gamecocks were 15th in the FCS in rushing, but that was helped by Perrilloux and the production mostly came against Ohio Valley Conference teams. The ground game was held to under 100 yards in two games, and both were losses to Georgia Tech and Florida State. Jerrell Powe and the Ole Miss front four (even with Kentrell Lockett out) is going to be a brick wall, so if JSU isn’t throwing effectively, and that’s going to be tough with a new quarterback and new starting receivers, then the offensive production won’t be there.
What To Watch Out For: How consistent will the Ole Miss offense be? Without QB Jevan Snead, RB Dexter McCluster, and WR Shay Hodge gone, the Rebels are looking for more from a slew of good running back prospects while trying to settle the quarterback situation going into the meat of the season. Stanley is a huge, strong passer, but Masoli was expected to be a special offensive weapon who had the potential to be the most effective quarterback in the SEC this year. Now the spotlight is fully on Stanley.
What Will Happen: JSU gave Florida State all it could handle in a 19-9 loss last year, but this isn’t quite the same team. The Gamecocks have a few fantastic players, led by Heath at corner, but there isn’t the talent on the lines to hold up for more than a half.
CFN Prediction: Ole Miss 38 … Jacksonville State 13 … Line: No Line
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Tennessee-Martin (0-0) at Tennessee (0-0) Sept. 4, 6:00, ESPN3.com
Here’s The Deal … Derek Dooley, you get one game as the new head coach of Tennessee to tune up and tighten up before dealing with Oregon and Florida. Enjoy this week while it lasts. It’s not like Lane Kiffin left the Tennessee program high and dry, but there’s a lot of work, a lot of rebuilding, and a lot of mending to be done. Dooley’s biggest advantage going into the season is that he’s not Kiffin, and while the expectations are tempered, with even the most frenzied of Vol fans understanding that there’s work to be done, anything less than a blowout of UT-Martin will be a major disappointment. The Skyhawks are also rebuilding a bit, but they have an interesting offense and Tennessee is going to need some time, so while this will end up being a blowout, it could be entertaining for at least a quarter.
Why UT-Martin Might Win: The running game and the defensive experience. The Skyhawks finished 27th in the FCS last year averaging 166 yards per game on the ground, and while facing Tennessee is a little bit different than going against Tennessee State, the Vol defensive front has been hammered hard by injuries this summer and could be vulnerable early on. It’s not like Kevin Whaley tore it up at Minnesota, there’s a reason why he transferred, but he’s an FBS-caliber running back with the ability to put up a nice day if his offensive line can give him some room. Meanwhile, the UTM defense gets almost all the key starters back.
Why Tennessee Might Win: The UTM defense might be experienced, but when Tennessee wants to line up and pound away, it should be able to do it without much of a problem. The Skyhawk defensive front will be active and will have games this year when it camps out in opposing backfields, but this isn’t going to be one of those moments with the Vol offensive line certain to be solid in pass protection (after having some rocky moments this offseason). Expect at least 250 yards on the ground and a lot of safe, effective passes to keep the chains moving.
What To Watch Out For: The Tennessee quarterback situation is far from being settled. Matt Simms is the odds-on favorite to be the main man only because he more experienced than Tyler Bray and he moves well. However, Bray is the more talented bomber and is the one who can take Tennessee to another level faster. The ground game will carry the Vols, but the talk after the game will be about the efficiency of the passers. If the results aren’t sparkling, there will be plenty of worries before the big boys come to Knoxville.
What Will Happen: The Tennessee defense, even with injury problems on the defensive line, will dominate. UTM’s dangerous offense will be suffocated, and while the Vol attack won’t be smooth, it’ll have few problems putting the game away early on.
CFN Prediction: Tennessee 45 … Tennessee-Martin 6 … Line: No Line
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Arkansas State (0-0) at Auburn (0-0) Sept. 4, 7:00
Here’s The Deal … Get in, tune up, say healthy, and move on. Auburn has bigger fish to fry just a few days later in a Thursday night SEC battle against Mississippi State, but Arkansas State has the potential to be the Sun Belt champion and isn’t going to be a layup. It’ll take a special effort for the Red Wolves to pull off the major upset, but with a great offensive backfield and a strong linebacking corps Auburn has to show up. With a new starting quarterback and the hope to overcome an inconsistent year, the Tiger offense is looking to come out roaring like it did last year, while the hope is for the experience to shine through early on for a defense that needs to prove it can do more against the run. ASU kicks off its Sun Belt season against Louisiana next week, and while this isn’t exactly a game to use as a tune-up, any success will be a major plus.
Why Arkansas State Might Win: The game might be fast. Auburn is going to want to get the ground game going, but it’ll do it with an up-tempo offense that will want to get into a rhythm. The same goes for ASU and an offense that’s going from highlighting the ground attack to using a more balanced, no-huddle style. If ASU can keep Auburn on its heels and mix things up a bit, a few early scores could keep this close late if the game moves along. If this becomes a grinding game, it favors Auburn. It won’t be that, and before Auburn knows it, it’ll be the middle of the third quarter and the pressure might be on.
Why Auburn Might Win: ASU hasn’t blocked anyone in pass protection over the last three years. The quarterbacks have been mobile and have taken some sacks by trying to move around and make something happen, but the line hasn’t been a plus. This is a group built to shove people around for the ground game, but that’s not going to work against the Tiger defensive front that might be a bit of a question mark, but is extremely strong. With a good rotation expected in the front four, the Tigers should be regulars into the backfield and should ruin most plays before they get started.
What To Watch Out For: Cameron Newton. The Auburn running backs will be the stars of the show with Onterio McCalebb, Mario Fannin, and star of the summer, top recruit Michael Dyer, all capable of coming up with big games, but everyone wants to see if Newton, a transfer from Florida, can be the type of quarterback who can take Auburn from good to special. The 6-6, 242-pound junior has phenomenal all-around talent with a live arm and great mobility, and if he can put it all together right away, it’s look out time for the rest of the SEC West.
What Will Happen: Arkansas State had the best defense in the Sun Belt last year and is good enough this season to keep this close. Auburn has won its last four games against Sun Belt teams by a combined score of 190 to 21 (fine, so all four were against Louisiana-Monroe), and it’ll come out with a few big haymakers early on before sputtering a bit in the middle. The Tigers will win comfortably, but they won’t be able to take their foot off the gas.
CFN Prediction: Auburn 41 … Arkansas State 17 … Line: Auburn -29
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San Jose State (0-0) at Alabama (0-0) Sept. 4, 7:00, ESPN3.com
Here’s The Deal … The entire college football world will be watching to see just how new San Jose State head coach Mike MacIntyre does as he tries to pump up the struggling program. And for those interested in such things, the defending national champions are also going to be part of the fun. With Penn State coming up next, Alabama desperately needs all sixty minutes of this game to get all the new starters on defense (potentially ten) up to speed, while folding in the twos would also be a nice plus to get a little bit of on-field time before the real fun begins. Coming off a 2-10 campaign with only one win over an FCS team, without two of its best players (more on that in a moment), and with only one win over a BCS team (a 35-34 victory over a Stanford team that went 1-11 in 2006) in seven-plus years, San Jose State isn’t going to win this game. The Spartans will be a punching bag against a Bama team looking to flex a little muscle in an easy-going scrimmage, but they should be fun-bad with a little bit of potential to hit on a few big pass plays. More than anything else, the reason to watch is to see how the offense and the running game works with reigning Heisman winner Mark Ingram on the shelf with a knee injury. How will the rest of the team look? Take a guess … it should be a nice live exercise for the defending national champion.
Why San Jose State Might Win: The Alabama defense could need a little while to figure out what it’s doing. That might be a reach considering how much four and five star talent there is across the board, but the Tide is starting from near-scratch at some positions and could be a bit inconsistent early on. The Spartans will be ditching the spread (to a point) and will go with a more conventional attack with more downfield passing, so the potential is there for a few mistakes by the still-emerging Bama D to lead to a few scores. The receiving corps should be SJSU’s strength.
Why Alabama Might Win: Coming out of spring ball, San Jose State had three players who might be able to see regular playing time on Alabama. Safety Duke Ihenacho would be a starter, receiver Marquis Avery would be a number two target, maybe a three, and Tanner Burns would be a key backup safety if not a starting nickel back. Ihenacho is fine, but Burns, the team’s leading tackler last year, left for Kansas State, and Avery, the team’s leading receiver, flunked out. The Spartans could hardly afford to be without top playmakers going into this game, and now the talent level is that much lower.
What To Watch Out For: The Alabama passing game. Even with Ingram out, Trent Richardson and the Alabama running game could pound out 250 yards if that was the sole focus, but that doesn’t do anyone any good. The Tide must use this game to work on other aspects to tighten up early on, and getting Julio Jones and the receivers involved early on is a must to give teams on the schedule reason to worry about more than just getting hammered on. Greg McElroy was solid early on last year before struggling in the middle of the season, and he finished the year with only 31 yards against Texas. He has to be razor-sharp, while it’s time for Jones to come up with an NFL-first rounder type of performance.
What Will Happen: Alabama will call its shot. MacIntyre will try to get the passing game going, but the pressure from the revamped Bama defense will be too much to expect and consistent Spartan offense. The Tide second team will be on display very, very early in the second half, while McElroy will complete over 75% of his throws.
CFN Prediction: Alabama 45 … San Jose State 6 Line: Alabama -41
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Tennessee Tech (0-0) at Arkansas (0-0) Sept. 4, 7:00, ESPN3.com
Here’s The Deal … At the end of the year when Arkansas star QB Ryan Mallett is being talked about as a top NFL draft prospect and a possible Heisman finalist, everyone will look at his numbers. They’ll be padded very nicely by this game going by what he does in the first half alone. It’s not like the Hogs will have to break much of a sweat to beat a team that will struggle to finish in the upper half of the Ohio Valley Conference, but tuning up is what games like these are for. For a secondary that needs work and time, TTU is the exact type of team to start out against. The Golden Eagles have a nice-looking receiving corps and they’ll try to bomb away to keep up.
Why Tennessee Tech Might Win: Head coach Watson Brown has been around forever, going into his 26th year with five of those seasons at Vanderbilt and 12 years at UAB. It’s not like he has had much success, with just six winning campaigns, and just four in the last 23 seasons, but has seen more than his share of high-powered opponents. With 55 lettermen and 16 starters returning, Brown has a veteran team with a solid pass defense that could be more than simply a shooting gallery for Mallett.
Why Arkansas Might Win: The TTU offense won’t be able to keep up the pace. The Arkansas defense isn’t a brick wall and the secondary is a major concern, but TTU is inexperienced at quarterback and won’t likely put up huge numbers despite boasting one of the Ohio Valley Conference’s top receiving corps. Even with a strong quarterback in Lee Sweeney running the show last year, TTU still only averaged a mere 281 yards of total offense per game. The Golden Eagle pass rush will be non-existent at times, which means Mallett should be able to get nice and comfortable with plenty of time to find his second, third, and fourth options.
What To Watch Out For: Mallett’s foot. Arkansas can win this game with backup Tyler Wilson under center, and it can also win by handing off the ball 52 times. After recovering from a broken foot that kept him under wraps for most of the offseason, Mallett needs to show under fire that he has enough mobility to be more than just a statue. He’s not exactly going to be Vince Young when it comes to taking off, but he has to move well in the pocket and his foot can’t be giving him any issues.
What Will Happen: The Hogs will hang up 30 points in the first half, and just as head coach Bobby Petrino plans on slowing things down, he’ll see a reporter wearing a Florida hat and will get angry enough to pile up a few more scores.
CFN Prediction: Arkansas 49 … Tennessee Tech 10 … Line: No Line
Must See Rating: Season Premiere: Keeping Up with the Kardashians 5 - Eat, Pray, Love 1 … … 1
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Memphis (0-0) at Mississippi State (0-0) Sept. 4, 7:00 ET, ESPNU
Here’s The Deal … Dan Mullen generated a buzz in his first season in Starkville. Now, he wants to build on a level of enthusiasm that this area hasn’t witnessed in years. Don’t be lulled to sleep by last year’s 5-7 record. Mississippi State went 3-3 down the stretch and whipped rival Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl. With ticket sales percolating, a second bowl appearance in the last decade could be just what Mullen to kick the rebuilding into overdrive. As reclamation projects go, Memphis is a stage or two behind Mississippi State heading into 2010. The Tigers ended their relationship with Tommy West, replacing him with former LSU assistant Larry Porter. He inherits a program with visions of grandeur, but the short-term picture is clouded by heavy turnover on both sides of the ball.
Why Memphis Might Win: In Porter’s first season, he’s going to build the Tigers from the lines out. The offensive line is a veteran group, which will open holes for rookie Jerrell Rhodes, a former North Carolina signee making a strong push for the starting nod. On defense, Memphis is tough up the middle, with massive Dontari Poe at defensive tackle and Jamon Hughes at middle linebacker, which will compound Mississippi State problems on offense. The Bulldogs lack consistency at quarterback or the efficiency Mullen demands from this side of the ball.
Why Mississippi State Might Win: Memphis has its own problems at quarterback and with keeping drives alive. Neither is likely to be solved against an improving Bulldog defense. While it still has to plug some holes in pass defense, running against this unit will be frustrating. DE Pernell McPhee is a next-level type at strongside. And not much gets past Chris White and K.J. Wright at the second line of defense. If the Tigers can’t effectively establish the running game, it’ll put too much pressure on QB Cannon Smith to produce on third-and-long in his first career start.
What To Watch Out For: If Mississippi State is going to truly begin turning the corner, it’ll need more develop on the offensive side of the ball. The defense should be fine, but if the offense keeps sputtering, reaching .500 is unlikely. It all begins with QB Chris Relf, who needs to back up the offseason indications that he’s grown as a passer. He’ll get help in the backfield from Vick Ballard, a JUCO transfer who has impressed from the moment he stepped foot on campus.
What Will Happen: Buoyed by an enthusiastic home crowd and the running of Ballard, Mississippi State will get off to the fast start Mullen craves. The Bulldogs have too much interior talent, with McPhee on defense and LT Derek Sherrod on offense, to get pushed around at any point in the game. Plus, going on the road to play an SEC team is not a good place for Memphis to begin resurrecting its impotent offense.
CFN Prediction: Mississippi State 31 … Memphis 14 … Line:
MSU -20.5
Must See Rating: Season Premiere: Keeping Up with the Kardashians 5 - Eat, Pray, Love 1 …
2
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Northwestern (0-0) at Vanderbilt (0-0) Sept. 4, 7:30, ESPN3.com
Here’s The Deal … It’s not exactly Penn State vs. Alabama, but there’s always a lot of chest-thumping and a ton of discussion whenever the SEC and the Big Ten play each other. It might be on the road and Northwestern has several things to work on, but this is a must win for Pat Fitzgerald’s program and the conference considering Vandy is the SEC’s weakest team by far. The Commodores, coming off a 2-10 season, not only have to come up with some semblance of an offense and get even more out of its defense, but they also have to do it without Bobby Johnson, the head coach that brought the program a little bit of success. Robbie Caldwell is being thrown into the fire against a team that went to the Outback Bowl last year and pushed Auburn in an overtime thriller. With LSU coming up next week and a date at Ole Miss to follow, things don’t get much easier for the Commodores after this week. The Wildcats, on the other hand, get to take it easy for the first half of the season with Illinois State, Rice, and Central Michigan up next. It’s not crazy to think that a win in Nashville for NU might mean a 6-0 start.
Why Northwestern Might Win: There’s still a question of whether or not Vandy can actually move the ball. The offense finished 110th in the nation in years and 113th in scoring, and now it could be without its best player, RB Warren Norman, who missed practice time with a knee injury. The defensive front seven, especially the linebacking corps, should be the strength of the Wildcats, and it’ll take a big day from the Vandy passing game to hang around. That’s not likely to happen with the good NU front four likely to generate just enough pressure to force several big mistakes.
Why Vanderbilt Might Win: If the Vanderbilt defense can keep the Wildcat passing game under wraps, this will be close. New NU QB Dan Persa has a ton of talent, and he has the offensive front to give him time, but he’s new as the full-time starter and he’ll have to deal with a secondary with enough talent to give everyone in the SEC problems. The Commodores finished ninth in the nation against the pass and picked off 12 passes, and while a lot of the positive stats came because offenses chose to run the ball on the porous front seven, the secondary really was fine and now three starters are back.
What To Watch Out For: Mike Kafka went from being a question mark to a bomber who finished 12th in the nation in total offense. The former NU QB got drafted by Philadelphia, and now the question is whether or not Persa can handle the work. The only knock on him coming out of high school was his height, generously listed at 6-1. While the junior isn’t a top-shelf, Kafka-like passer, he was the first player in Pennsylvania high school history to run for over 1,000 yards and throw for over 2,000 in the same season. If he’s great, Northwestern could become a major player in the Big Ten race.
What Will Happen: It’s not going to be a thing of offensive beauty with at least five turnovers and too many three and outs. Vanderbilt has to be +2 to have any shot, but the offense still won’t do enough to overcome the Wildcat attack that will sputter and cough enough to have a hard time pulling away, but will come up with a few big plays in the second half to get the W.
CFN Prediction: Northwestern 20 … Vanderbilt 13 … Line: Northwestern -4
Must See Rating: Season Premiere: Keeping Up with the Kardashians 5 - Eat, Pray, Love 1 … … 2.5
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