2010 M-West Fearless Predictions
Week 1 ... Sept. 4 Games
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Week 1, Part
2 ... Connecticut at Michigan, & More
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More College Football Picks (and NFL, too)
GAME OF THE WEEK
Oregon State (0-0) vs. TCU (0-0) Sept. 4, 7:45 ET, ESPN
Here’s The Deal … As the hunter, TCU has performed remarkably well during Gary Patterson’s nine seasons in Fort Worth. As the hunted, it’s about to enter uncharted waters. Fresh off their first-ever BCS bowl appearance, the Horned Frogs are No. 6 in the AP poll, their highest preseason ranking in school history. Having eclipsed new milestones in the past year, they want to prove they belong in the national discussion on a perennial basis. Since the non-conference schedule is so soft, facing Oregon State in Arlington could be TCU’s best chance all year to make a bold statement. The Beavers, too, will begin the year ranked, starting just inside the Top 25. They’ve been painfully close to their own BCS berth the last two years, getting denied the Rose Bowl with losses to rival Oregon. Often one to exceed expectations, Oregon State again has its sights set on a Pac-10 crown. Wannabe head coaches ought to pay special attention to this one since Patterson and Mike Riley are two of the best at taking average high school recruits and transforming them into pro prospects.
Why Oregon State Might Win: In Corvallis, it all begins with the Rodgers brothers—RB Jacquizz and WR James—who’ll be showcasing their dynamite skills in their home state of Texas. The only thing tougher than containing these siblings is trying to do so on a fast surface and early in the year, before the hits have had a chance to accumulate. They’ll be operating behind a physical line led by T Michael Philipp and C Alex Linnenkohl, who can drive block opponents into submission. The Horned Frogs will be breaking in a pair of new cornerbacks, which could also create opportunities in the passing game for WR Darrell Catchings and playmaking H-back Joe Halahuni. On defense, DT Stephen Paea is a force of nature, with the strength and quickness to completely disrupt the opponent’s gameplan.
Why TCU Might Win: Paea is a beast, but he doesn’t have much support, which will allow the Frogs to double him constantly. They’ve also got a terrific front wall, headed by hulking T Marcus Cannon and C Jake Kirkpatrick. With few worries about the Beavers’ outside rushers, QB Andy Dalton will have the time he needs to spread the ball around to his myriad weapons. From backs Matthew Tucker and Ed Wesley to the return of last year’s top four receivers, TCU will test an Oregon State defense that’s breaking in new linebackers and has had problems defending the pass in the red zone. Yeah, the Frogs lost some key parts on defense, but Patterson always has this unit ready, and there’s star potential at each level, with DE Wayne Daniels, LB Tank Carder, and S Tejay Johnson.
What To Watch Out For: TCU has Dalton under center. Oregon State? Ryan Katz, who’ll be starting his first career game under extreme circumstances. The staff loves his poise and potential, but this is going to be a unique circumstance, facing an aggressive Frog defense in front of a packed house in Texas. He’s just a sophomore, so don’t read too much into his debut ... unless, of course, he plays lights out in a Beaver upset.
What Will Happen: As good as Oregon State has been under Riley, it’s been a traditional slow starter, losing at least two games in each of the last six Septembers. That trend will continue Saturday. The Beavers are good, but not as good as they’ll be in November, when Katz has more reps under his belt and the defense has mined some support for Paea in the front seven. TCU is better positioned for this kind of opener, boasting few weaknesses on either side of the ball. The Frogs will ride a big night from Dalton, who’ll make an early case for national honors.
CFN Prediction: TCU 33 … Oregon State 21 … Line: X
Must See Rating: (Coming) … 4
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Pitt (0-0) at Utah (0-0) Sept. 2, 8:30 ET, Versus
Here’s The Deal … In an opening weekend dominated by one-sided, lackluster match ups, Pittsburgh at Utah is the rare offering between ranked schools. The Panthers enter 2010 as the favorite to win the Big East for the first time under Dave Wannstedt. This shapes up as Wanny’s best team, boasting star power on offense with RB Dion Lewis and defense with DE Greg Romeus. The supporting cast is up to snuff as well, but untested sophomore QB Tino Sunseri is the “X” factor and the greatest area of concern. After going 10-3 and whipping Cal in the Poinsettia Bowl, the Utes have visions of a third BCS bowl run. There’s still the matter of unseating Mountain West favorite TCU, but for now, they’re concentrating on making a good first impression in front of the nation. As potential BCS busters go, Utah hopes to gain ground on Boise State and TCU, who also open with major conference opponents.
Why Pittsburgh Might Win: The first test for a Utah defense that lost eight starters, four drafted by the NFL? Slow down Lewis, one of the nation’s premier backs. It’s an enormous task for a unit that’ll be breaking in all new linebackers and safeties. And if the Utes commit too many men to the box, star WR Jonathan Baldwin will make them pay for it over the top. Beyond Romeus, the Panther defense is in excellent shape. Recently reinstated DE Jabaal Sheard creates a ferocious pass rushing bookend, and LB Dan Mason and S Dom DeCicco will cut off lanes in run defense.
Why Utah Might Win: While the Pitt D is tough, the Utes feel it can be solved with a dose of balance and a solid front wall. Jordan Wynn was a revelation at quarterback as a freshman for the program, capping a solid second half with a breakout performance in the bowl game. He gets back top receiver Jereme Brooks and backs Eddie Wide and Matt Asiata. After Asiata was lost to a leg injury, Wide went for 1,000 yards in his place. Although Romeus and Sheard aren’t your ordinary ends, Utah retains both tackles, including future pro Caleb Schlauderaff on the left side.
What To Watch Out For: Kyle Whittingham always seems to regroup on defense, especially when it comes to stopping the run. With ground-oriented Pitt coming to Rice-Eccles, the Utes can also take solace in the returns of NT Sealver Siliga and DT Dave Kruger to the middle of the line. The pair will look to exploit the interior of the Panthers’ line, which will have two new guards and a walk-on center.
What Will Happen: Pittsburgh may be higher ranked, but Utah has a few key advantages that’ll be the difference in a close game—home field and the better coach. The half-season of experience for Wynn will also provide an edge compared to Sunseri, who has no way of preparing for the Salt Lake City crowd on a Thursday night. While Lewis will get his yards, Whittingham will design the right gameplan to confuse and slow down a one-dimensional offense.
CFN Prediction: Utah 27 … Pittsburgh 21 … Line: Utah -3
Must See Rating: Season Premiere: Keeping Up with the Kardashians 5 - Eat, Pray, Love 1… 4
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Northwestern State (0-0) at Air Force (0-0) Sept. 4, 2:00
Here’s The Deal … Air Force gets a true preseason tune up game, and it needs it before having to deal with the Mountain West opener against BYU next week and a trip to Oklahoma the week after. Northwestern State should be a bit better than it was last year, but that’s not saying much for a team that went 0-11 and was beaten by Houston and Baylor by a combined score of 123 to 20. The Demons have some nice young talents, but they’re going to be nothing more than a speedbump against a veteran Falcon team that could be the best yet under head coach Troy Calhoun.
Why Northwestern State Might Win: As always, Air Force isn’t exactly going to light it up in the passing game, and the run defense should be NSU’s relative strength with good athleticism up front. The Demons’ big weakness will be a lack of a pass rush, but that might not be that big a deal without a Falcon passing game to worry about.
Why Air Force Might Win: The only chance the Demons have of keeping this from being a 40-point blowout is if Air Force keeps screwing up. That’s not going to happen with the young NSU team not likely to be stingy with the ball after finishing 116th in the FCS in turnover margin, while Air Force was No. 1 in the nation in turnover margin. Air Force can win this game without any breaks, but it should come up with at least three takeaways to make this a blowout.
What To Watch Out For: With some huge games coming up, and an easy layup this week, Air Force will want to tune up the ground game but also needs to show something in the passing game to give BYU and Oklahoma something to prepare for. The more the safeties have to worry about a deep threat, the more room the Falcon ground game will have to move. That means Kevin Fogler, a 6-5, 205-pound senior needs to be more of a weapon and he has to show it this week. He only caught 25 passes last year, but he scored five times and he averaged 22.7 yards per play.
What Will Happen: Air Force will be fantastic and will pull back late before putting up a truly gruesome number. A 70-point day won’t be a shock.
CFN Prediction: Air Force 63 … Northwestern State 13 … Line: No Line
Must See Rating: Season Premiere: Keeping Up with the Kardashians 5 - Eat, Pray, Love 1 … 1
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Colorado (0-0) vs. Colorado State (0-0) at Denver Sept. 4, 2:00, Mtn.
Here’s The Deal … Last year, the two rivals came into their annual war thinking the game would be the start of a big turnaround. Colorado State won 23-17 showing off a decent deep passing game, and while Colorado lost, it didn’t play all that poorly (at least not for the entire 60 minutes). Both teams ended 3-9 with the Rams blowing their last nine games and the Buffs struggling to close with a one-point win over Texas A&M as the lone victory over the last five games. Dan Hawkins is on the hottest of hot seats, and a second straight loss in the series would be disastrous, while CSU head man Steve Fairchild could desperately use a win to start to erase the bad memories of the last two months of last season. If nothing else, this should be an entertaining, close game with seven of the last ten games decided by a touchdown or less. Colorado has to go to California next week and has Georgia and Missouri still to deal with in the first half of the season, while the Rams get to deal with Nevada’s running game next week.
Why Colorado Might Win: If Colorado’s passing game is ever going to work, this would be the game. There’s plenty of speed, athleticism, and potential in the CSU secondary, but the pass defense was abysmal at times. Considering there won’t be much of a pass rush to rely on, the Rams have to do something special against a Buff passing game that stunk in way too many games last season, but has the receiving corps in place to possibly be special at times this year. The Rams won’t have the passing attack to mount a big comeback if they get down early.
Why Colorado State Might Win: If Colorado State’s pass rush is ever going to work, this would be the game. The Rams were able to come up with 24 sacks, but didn’t make nearly enough tackles for loss. CU has an NFL talent on the offensive front in Nate Solder, but there hasn’t been any cohesion over the last few years and there’s been too much shuffling. The Buff front five did nothing to protect the quarterback last year allowing 44 sacks, and the ground game was non-existent finishing 113th in the nation. There’s enough experience to be better, but the play has improve by leaps and bounds to be any sort of a plus.
What To Watch Out For: There was a fight for the starting Colorado State quarterback job this offseason, but true freshman Pete Thomas was always the one with the inside track. Will this be a case of taking a step back to take a gigantic leap forward? Thomas is a 6-5 pro-style passer with a big-time arm and the smarts to be courted by Harvard, and he was a fantastic get for the program. This is his offense and his team from the start, so anything positive he’s able to do will get the Ram fans jacked up for the possibilities of the next four years.
What Will Happen: Colorado is just experienced enough to get through a game like this. The Buffs might not be all that great, but CSU has way too many question marks on both sides of the ball and have more problems to deal with. It’ll be yet another entertaining rivalry game with several twists and turns, but in the end, the Buffs will find just enough of a running game to take control late.
CFN Prediction: Colorado 26 … Colorado State 21 … Line: Colorado -12.5
Must See Rating: Season Premiere: Keeping Up with the Kardashians 5 - Eat, Pray, Love 1 … 2.5
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New Mexico (0-0) at Oregon (0-0) Sept. 4, 3:30 ET
Here’s The Deal … It’s about time. After enduring a long offseason that was filled with all kinds of distractions, Oregon is tickled just to be getting back on the field. Despite losing QB Jeremiah Masoli to a dismissal, the Ducks are still considered the slight favorites to repeat as Pac-10 champions, a quest that’ll begin with a few new faces in key places. After proving it can tune out the noise and still get to the Rose Bowl, the program is on a similar mission in 2010. New Mexico is looking for a do-over after careening to 1-11 in Mike Locksley’s debut in Albuquerque. With an only-way-is-up attitude, the Lobos are seeking a fresh start with a wicked early schedule that should have them battle-tested by the second half of the year.
Why New Mexico Might Win: Although the Lobos gave up too many big plays on defense last season, they did develop some stalwarts in the front seven who’ll continue to blossom this fall. With Johnathan Rainey, Jaymar Latchison, and Illinois transfer Reggie Ellis up front, and LB Carmen Messina hitting everything that moves, New Mexico has a fighter’s chance against that rugged Oregon offensive line. When this was scheduled, the Lobos feared having to contain Masoli and RB LaMichael James, but the latter is serving a one-game suspension and the latter is gone.
Why Oregon Might Win: If the feeble New Mexico offense is going to show signs of life, it’s not going to happen this week. While the Ducks will allow yards, Nick Aliotti has constructed another aggressive, opportunistic defense that will force the Lobos into mistakes. Players, such as DE Kenny Rowe and linebackers Casey Matthews and Spencer Paysinger, cover a lot of ground and are playmakers. Plus, the veteran secondary packs a punch and returns all four of last year’s starters. Yeah, the backfield that faced Ohio State in Pasadena is different, but in Chip Kelly’s prolific offense, it just means that newly-minted QB Darron Thomas and speedy RB Kenjon Barner will pick up the slack.
What To Watch Out For: When Oregon has the ball, the battle at the point of attack is going to be a good one. The Lobos have an underappreciated defensive line with a few potential NFL players in Rainey and Latchison, not to mention tackling machine linebacker Carmen Messina, but the Ducks believe this year’s starting five up front could be among the best in school history. If New Mexico can’t get a steady push up front, the Oregon ballcarriers are going to be navigating its secondary in the blink of an eye.
What Will Happen: Although New Mexico is going to be better in Locksley’s second season, the opener will look an awful lot like last year’s routs. In Oregon’s plug-and-play spread-option, there are enough quality athletes in the backfield to overcome losses and pick up where it left last season. After some early jitters, Costa will settle down and Barner will make a case for more reps even after James returns.
CFN Prediction: Oregon 45 … New Mexico 13 … Line: Oregon -34
Must See Rating: Season Premiere: Keeping Up with the Kardashians 5 - Eat, Pray, Love 1… 2
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Washington (0-0) at BYU (0-0) Sept. 4, 7:00 ET, CBS College Sports
Here’s The Deal … Considering the offseason hype, this trip to Provo shapes up as the most important opener for Washington in many years. After finishing the regular season strong and surprisingly retaining QB Jake Locker for one final year, the Huskies are eyeing no worse than a return to the postseason for the first time since 2002. Heck, with a fast start at his alma mater and some defensive progress, Steve Sarkisian could have the school in the Pac-10 title hunt in just his second year on the job. These are heady times for BYU, which has been to five straight bowl games and produced double-digit wins the last four years. However, all of those postseason games were the same, the Las Vegas Bowl, as Utah, TCU, and Boise State earned BCS bowl bids. Despite all of the recent success, there’s a feeling of unfinished business surrounding the Cougars, which isn’t likely to be quenched by a squad that could be rebuilding in 2010.
Why Washington Might Win: With Locker, and just about everyone else, back, the Husky offense is set to take flight. The senior has made tremendous strides as a passer, a process made easier by the return of top receivers Jermaine Kearse, Devin Aguilar, and James Johnson. When Locker isn’t punishing an overhauled BYU front seven, he’ll be handing the ball to Chris Polk, who’s coming a 1,000-yard season. While Washington will have one of the nation’s best quarterback in the opener, the Cougars are trying to decide between true freshman Jake Heaps and former Utah State transfer Riley Nelson (and will likely use a mix of both).
Why BYU Might Win: Considering its recent history of giving up big plays, it’s hard not to be concerned about the Washington defense. Not only does it struggle in the red zone and on third downs, but top pass rusher Daniel Te’o-Nesheim is in the NFL and injuries have hit the line. Even with the unsettled backfield, the Cougars have a knack for developing playmakers, like receivers McKay Jacobson and O’Neill Chambers. Everyone is going to benefit from a monstrous, seasoned line led by All-American candidate Matt Reynolds at left tackle.
What To Watch Out For: Although Washington isn’t exactly a young football team across the board, it is inexperienced at winning big games…especially on the road. Over the last five seasons, the Huskies are just 5-21 outside Seattle and have lost 12 straight dating back to 2007. If U-Dub is truly on the verge of turning things around, it’ll enter a tough venue, like LaVell Edwards Stadium, and leave with a dub-ya.
What Will Happen: Few schools face a more important opening game than Washington, which can use this trip as a launching pad to bigger things. It’ll rise to the occasion, catching BYU at the early stages of a restructuring period. As expected, Locker will be the catalyst, willing the Huskies to a close and emotional win with his arm and his legs.
CFN Prediction: Washington 31 … BYU 27 … Line: BYU -3
Must See Rating: Season Premiere: Keeping Up with the Kardashians 5 - Eat, Pray, Love 1… 4
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Nicholls State (0-0) at San Diego State (0-0) Sept. 4, 8:00 ET
Here’s The Deal … After showing some signs of life in Brady Hoke’s first season with the program, San Diego State is looking to take another step forward in 2010. Beyond the obvious need for better personnel, especially on both lines, the Aztecs must learn how to win and close out tight games. Two of their November losses were by no more than four points, which was the difference between ending a decade-long bowl drought and staying home. Nicholls State is coming off a miserable 3-8 campaign, and will need a break or two to get out of the Southland Conference basement. Charlie Stubbs takes over as the Colonels new head coach, replacing the old option offense with more of a pro-style system.
Why Nicholls State Might Win: As bad as the Colonels were in 2009, they did play their best ball down the stretch, winning two and nearly shocking Stephen F. Austin. QB LaQuintin Caston was one of the catalysts, throwing three scoring strikes in the upset of Northwestern State and displaying great feet as a rookie. He’ll continue his education against a San Diego State defense that’s been unable to pressure the quarterback in recent years and is vulnerable in the secondary. If Stubbs can develop a capable corps of receivers on the fly, the new offense has a shot at a fast start.
Why San Diego State Might Win: If all of the key players can stay healthy, the Aztecs are going to quietly have one of the nation’s more prolific passing attacks. When clicking, it’s good enough to keep the school competitive against better opponents. Ryan Lindley is back for his third season as a starter after tossing 39 touchdown passes in his first two years. In WR Vincent Brown, WR DeMarco Sampson, and TE Alston Umuolo, he has one of the Mountain West’s most dangerous collections of pass-catchers. The overmatched Colonel defensive backs will spend the night looking at the backs of No. 80 and No. 1.
What To Watch Out For: San Diego State may be fueled by the passing game, but the defense must make significant strides for the program to evolve. In one of the more important moves of the offseason, Rocky Long shifted LB Andrew Preston to the hybrid Aztec position, where he’ll be in a position to do more freelancing and show off his range. After slipping to 46 tackles in 2009, he might approach that number by the end of September.
What Will Happen: A visit from Nicholls State is exactly what San Diego State needs in order to get a confidence boost and get out of the gates quickly. The Colonels will be no match for the Aztec passing game, which features a strong-armed veteran hurler and a terrific supporting cast at receiver. Lindley will throw for 300 yards and three scores, engineering a rare lopsided win.
CFN Prediction: San Diego State 45 … Nicholls State 17 … Line: X
Must See Rating: (Coming) … 1
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Southern Utah (0-0) at Wyoming (0-0) Sept. 4, 9:00 ET
Here’s The Deal … Sometimes, all it takes is the right head coach to completely change the climate at a struggling school. Dave Christensen at Wyoming, for instance. In his first year in Laramie, the former Missouri assistant unexpectedly led the Cowboys to seven wins, including a New Mexico Bowl upset of Fresno State, the school’s second bowl win in the last half-century. With a breeze at its back, the program hopes to build on it and make a return to the postseason. Southern Utah is just your typical Great West team, playing fast and loose on offense, but struggling to stop the other team from scoring. The favorite in a miniature conference, the Thunderbirds are looking for their first winning season since 2004 after falling a game short in 2009.
Why Southern Utah Might Win: In Cedar City these days, it’s all about the passing game, which produced 33 touchdown passes a year ago. Although QB Cade Cooper has graduated, the Thunderbirds have confidence in another big-school transfer, former BYU product Brad Sorensen. Naturally, it’s going to help throwing to All-American WR Tysson Poots, one of the most decorated players in school history. Wideout Fesi Sitake is also back, giving Southern Utah a pair of experienced pass-catchers who each made at least 75 grabs in 2009.
Why Wyoming Might Win: While Southern Utah will make connections through the air, don’t assume it’ll go unchallenged. The Cowboys are loaded in the secondary and poised to give Poots and Sitake a four-quarter workout. All four starters return to the defensive backfield, led by S Chris Prosinski and CB Marcell Gipson. On offense, Wyoming will get little resistance from the Thunderbird defense. It enjoys improving balance, with RB Alvester Alexander ready to build on a solid debut and cover boy Austyn Carta-Samuels playing catch with big target WR David Leonard.
What To Watch Out For: The match up between Poots and Gipson when Southern Utah has the ball is going to be worth the price of admission for those at War Memorial Stadium. The receiver has great size and has outgrown the competition at this level. The corner is one of the best cover guys at his position in the Mountain West. When they go head-to-head, NFL scouts will be as interested in the outcome as the fans in the stands.
What Will Happen: Christensen has a good thing brewing on offense, with a backfield comprised of sophomores and a veteran to lead the receivers. Southern Utah simply lacks the stoppers on defense to slow down an improving attack that’ll run it with Alexander and work the airways with Carta-Samuels and his receivers. The Cowboys will jump out to a quick lead and never look back.
CFN Prediction: Wyoming 38 … Southern Utah 19 … Line: X
Must See Rating: (Coming) … 1
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Wisconsin (0-0) at UNLV (0-0) Sept. 4, 11:00 PM, Versus
Here’s The Deal … Will Wisconsin come out roaring or will Bobby Hauck’s debut at UNLV be a shocker? The Badgers have dreams of a Big Ten championship and a run at the BCS title with a loaded team returning from last season’s successful 10-3 season, but high expectations have never worked well in Madison especially when it comes to consistently playing up to the talent level. Almost every win last year was way too close when it didn’t need to be, and closing was always a problem until late in the regular season. For UNLV, the hope is that the arrival of Hauck and the hope that the program can finally become relevant. After years of mediocrity, it’s asking for too much to be fantastic right away, but a win over the Badgers would put Hauck and the Rebels on the map. At the very least, a good showing could mean that things have changed enough for UNLV that it’ll be a factor in the Mountain West.
Why Wisconsin Might Win: The Badger offensive line should obliterate the UNLV defensive front. The Badger front five might be the best in the Big Ten and is among the toughest in America, while the Rebel front line is huge, but should give up yards in big chunks. Size-wise, UNLV has some major beefeaters to theoretically stuff things up, but the Badger backfield has weapons to run inside and out while OT Gabe Carimi and the UW offensive front should take over the game by the second half.
Why UNLV Might Win: It’s Wisconsin, it’s early in the season, and it’s on the road. If the Badgers have everything working and are sharp, forget about it. However, in the opening game of the year, teams are rarely rock-solid in all phases and Wisconsin has never exactly been a dominant starter, even though it hasn’t lost a September non-conference game since a 23-5 home gack to the Rebels in 2003. Even at home over the last few years, UW has struggled early on getting pushed by NIU and Fresno State last season, and it’s been even harder once the team got on the road needing everything in the bag to beat Fresno State two years ago and struggling to get by UNLV in 2007. The Badgers don’t have much to go on film-wise considering the spread has been pushed aside for a more conventional attack, so there might be a few surprises for a relatively green Badger defensive front.
What To Watch Out For: Everyone knows Wisconsin will run the ball, and if things get tight, it’ll run the ball even more. The key to the season will be the further development of QB Scott Tolzien, one of the breakout stars of the 2009 Big Ten season. He has to show right away that last year wasn’t a fluke in any way, and he needs to take advantage of the likely lack of a pass rush to be on his game from the start. On the other side, Omar Clayton and Mike Clausen are still battling it out for the starting quarterback job, but Clausen has an ankle injury and Clayton is trying to become more of a passer in a new attack.
What Will Happen: The Badgers will struggle early to find its rhythm against a jacked up Rebel defense, and then the running game will start to kick in. Tolzien will hit on a few key third down passes in the second half, John Clay will take over on two straight drives, and the fourth quarter will be bench-emptying time after the UW O line imposes its will. However, it’ll be a fun first 45 minutes.
CFN Prediction: Wisconsin 34 … UNLV 16 … Line: Wisconsin -20
Must See Rating: Season Premiere: Keeping Up with the Kardashians 5 - Eat, Pray, Love 1 … 2
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