2010 Independent Fearless Predictions
Week 1 ... Sept. 4 Games
East
UAB |
UCF
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East
Carolina
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Marshall
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Memphis
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Southern
Miss
West
Houston |
Rice
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SMU
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Tulane
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Tulsa
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UTEP
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Week 1, Part 2
Game of the Week
Purdue (0-0) at Notre Dame (0-0) Sept. 4, 3:30, NBC
Here’s The Deal … For Notre Dame fans, this is the beginning of the rest of their lives. After all the drama and all the ugliness from the last few years of the Charlie Weis debacle, the Irish Nation needs a new start and needs something positive from new head man Brian Kelly in what’s amounting to a must-win opener. It’s possible this will be one of the highest-profile opening day games between two teams that didn’t go to a bowl the year before, and if nothing else, it should be great theater. For all of Weis’s problems, he was able to get by the Boilermakers with a thrilling 24-21 win last year as the program has won four of the last five in the series, and there won’t be any grace period for Kelly.
Even the most desperate and die-hard of Irish fans aren’t expecting miracles right away, but new head coaches tend to rock out of the gate. Weis went 9-3 in his first season with a Fiesta Bowl appearance and was 19-6 in his first two seasons, while Ty Willingham went 10-3 in his first season in 2002. Kelly wasn’t bad at Cincinnati from the word go with a 10-3 2007 season, and he isn’t diminishing the expectations in South Bend in any way.
Purdue head man Danny Hope had a nice first season with a fun 5-7 season that could’ve been far, far better with a little bit of luck. The Boilermakers lost five games by six points or fewer (and four by three or fewer) and have an improved, more experienced team coming into this season. They’ll hardly be fazed by the atmosphere of Kelly’s first game, and a win could mean a huge start with Western Illinois, Ball State, and Toledo to follow.
Why Purdue Might Win: Will the Notre Dame secondary be better? The Purdue passing game should be potent once again led by Keith Smith, arguably the Big Ten’s best receiver, and the Irish need to come up with something special after a disappointing 2009. It’s not like Kelly’s teams have been rocks against the pass over the last few years, giving up 230 yards per game last season, and it’ll be bombs away for a Boilermaker attack that should come out firing. Defensively, the pass rush from Ryan Kerrigan and the front four should provide steady pressure on Dayne Crist for most of the afternoon, while the linebacking corps is strong enough to keep the Irish running game to a minimum. The Boilermaker front seven is set up nicely to slow down the quick, up-tempo passing game that Kelly will employ.
Why Notre Dame Might Win: Yeah, Purdue should put up some huge numbers on the Irish secondary, but if Crist can get time, he might go ballistic. The Boilermaker secondary is the team’s biggest weakness by far, at least when it comes to veterans and proven production. There’s plenty of young talent and a slew of great athletes, but they’re going to be under fire from the start against Michael Floyd and a receiving corps that will still be devastating even though Golden Tate is now playing up in Seattle. Crist subbed in for a banged up Jimmy Clausen last year and completed 5-of-10 passes for 45 yards, but he should have far more success this year.
What To Watch Out For: There was a time when Robert Marve was expected to be the next big thing in Miami football. A superstar recruit, he struggled both on and off the field, never fit in, and didn’t leave on the best of terms. Now the Purdue starter is fired up, motivated, and looking to be the player everyone thought he’d be a few seasons ago, and he could be the storyline in a game that’s all about Notre Dame. The 6-1, 210-pound junior is thick, tough, and a dual-threat playmaker who’s past a torn ACL and should do a little of everything for the Boilermaker attack.
What Will Happen: There will be a LOT to talk about no matter what happens. This should be a wildly entertaining shootout with Kelly’s offense showing enough glimpses of greatness to get everyone fired up. Just as it looks like the Irish will be in for a cruise-control type of day, Purdue will come roaring back to make everyone sweat. Kelly will get his first win, Purdue will look great in a loss, and then the focus will be all on the arrival of Michigan into South Bend for another spotlight battle.
CFN Prediction: Notre Dame 34 … Purdue 30 … Line: Notre Dame -10.5
Must See Rating: Season Premiere: Keeping Up with the Kardashians 5 - Eat, Pray, Love 1 … 4.5
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Army (0-0) at Eastern Michigan (0-0) Sept. 4, 7:00 ET
Here’s The Deal … Air Force has been to three consecutive bowl games. Navy hasn’t missed the postseason since 2002. Army is pining to join them. The Black Knights have been down for a long time, something second-year head coach Rich Ellerson is determined to change. The Cadets haven’t bowled since 1996 or beaten the Midshipmen since 2001, testament to their recent struggles. Under Ellerson, however, they won five games for the first time since that 1996 team went 10-2, and have some momentum entering 2010. Just one additional victory means a bowl game, so trips like this one Ypsilanti are more critical than they might appear. After reaching bedrock by going winless last season, Eastern Michigan will be searching for positive signs in Ron English’s second year. Faced with one of the toughest jobs among FBS programs, he’s hoping the use of so many young players will start paying dividends in the fall.
Why Army Might Win: The Black Knights’ desire to establish the run won’t go unfulfilled on this night. They’re ready to rock on the ground, bolstered by the returns of four senior linemen, QB Trent Steelman, and shifty backs Patrick Mealy and Jameson Carter. The key, though, could be FB Jared Hassin, an Air Force transfer who has impressed the staff since arriving in West Point. Army will be able to bully an Eastern Michigan front wall that was last nationally versus the run in 2009, and still lacks the bodies to withstand at the point of attack.
Why Eastern Michigan Might Win: If the Eagles are going to deliver the upset and snap a 12-game losing streak, it’ll be done on the backs of the backfield. QB Alex Gillett and RB Dwayne Priest gained a lot of experience, while pacing the offense on the ground. Although Gillett still needs to progress as a passer, he’s dangerous when he tucks and runs. Priest has 1,000-yard potential if he can get proper support from his blockers. The Army defense tends to have its biggest problems when teams run right at it.
What To Watch Out For: Tucked away in the mediocrity of Army football is a pair of defenders capable of shedding some national anonymity this season. While neither DE Josh McNary nor LB Stephen Anderson look like the prototype, that won’t stop them from wreaking havoc in the Eastern Michigan backfield. McNary set a single-season school record for sacks last season, and never quits on a play.
What Will Happen: This is a pivotal game for Army, which wants to reach a point where it can dispose of the inferior opponents on the schedule, especially on the road. The Black Knights will bludgeon the Eagles on the ground, controlling the tempo of the game and getting multiple players in the mix. With a heavy dose of Hassin, they’ll wear down their hosts, which won’t have the pop on offense to mount a comeback.
CFN Prediction: Army 30 … Eastern Michigan 17 … Line:
Army -7
Must See Rating: Season Premiere: Keeping Up with the Kardashians 5 - Eat, Pray, Love 1 … 1
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Navy (0-0) at Maryland (0-0) Sept. 6, 4:00 ET, ESPN
Here’s The Deal … Two programs traveling in polar opposite directions meet for just the second time since 1965, with local bragging rights at stake. Navy has been to an Academy-best seven straight bowl games, and in QB Ricky Dobbs has a player it can tout as a fringe Heisman contender. Even without original architect Paul Johnson, Ken Niumatalolo has made sure that a winning record remains the norm in Annapolis. Over in College Park, Maryland is trying to rebound from one of its worst seasons in school history, a 2-10 debacle that almost cost Ralph Friedgen his job. Compared to the rest of the ACC, the Terps are noticeably light in talent and are breaking in a new quarterback, making a bounce back season unlikely.
Why Navy Might Win: The only thing harder than stopping the Navy option offense is doing so when the quarterback is established and physically gifted. Dobbs is a special player, who runs this system seamlessly and makes everyone around him better. In particular, Vince Murray has flourished as the 220-pound complement running the fullback dive and working the interior of opposing defenses. Both players, along with a wave of slotbacks, will expose the softness in the middle of the Maryland line and its lapses at stopping the run.
Why Maryland Might Win: The Terrapins have an athletic quarterback of their own, shifty Jamarr Robinson, who should have success running and throwing on a rebuilt Navy D missing all of last year’s starting linebackers. And he won’t have to go it alone. The duos of Da’Rel Scott and Davin Meggett at running back and Torrey Smith and Adrian Cannon at wide receiver provide lots of options when the ball gets distributed. The Midshipmen, while gritty on defense, lack the speed to contend with field-stretchers, like Scott and Smith.
What To Watch Out For: Easily the most delicious game-within-the-game pits Dobbs and the relentless Navy ground assault versus an unheralded set of Maryland linebackers. It gets lost in a struggling program, but Alex Wujciak, Adrian Moten, and Demetrius Hartsfield form one of the best trios of defenders in the ACC. While they’ll get lots of chances to make plays, their discipline, as much as their athleticism, will determine how far downfield those stops occur.
What Will Happen: Pound-for-pound, Maryland has more talent than Navy. Fortunately for the Midshipmen, that’s not the only determination of success. Navy happens to have the better all-around team, which will be the difference in a very close and competitive game. Dobbs has a penchant for taking command in nail-biters, and will again provide the second-half spark, wearing down a Terp team that has weaknesses on both lines.
CFN Prediction: Navy 31 … Maryland 27 … Line: Navy -6.5
Must See Rating: Season Premiere: Keeping Up with the Kardashians 5 - Eat, Pray, Love 1 … 3
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