2010 Big 12 Fearless Predictions - Sept. 4

Fearless Predictions for every Big 12 game, Sept. 4

2010 Big 12 Fearless Predictions

Week 1 ... Sept. 4 Games

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GAME OF THE WEEK

Illinois (0-0) vs. Missouri (0-0) in St. Louis Sept. 4, 12:30, Fox Sports Net

Here’s The Deal … The border war has always been a big basketball rivalry, but it’s missing something on the football side mainly because Missouri has been so dominant. The Tigers have scored a total of 139 points in the three wins in the series, and with a team good enough to be in the hunt for the Big 12 title (or at least the North), it’ll take something special for the beleaguered Illini to pull off the upset. After being one of the nation’s biggest disappointments, Illinois is starting over at quarterback, lost WR Arrelious Benn to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and with a shaky defense that has to start playing up to its athleticism. On the flip side, Mizzou has a sneaky-good team that’s flying under the radar a bit in the Big 12 discussion, but has one of the most explosive offenses in the nation, a dangerous defensive front, and the type of talent to start the season off with a bang. Because nothing much is expected of Illinois, a win would mean everything to jump-start the Ron Zook era with Southern Illinois and Northern Illinois to follow, while the Tigers get McNeese State, San Diego State, and Miami University before getting a week off.
Why Illinois Might Win: The running game should work. The last time we saw Missouri try to stop an effective ground game, Navy tore off 385 yards and four touchdowns in a 35-13 bowl win. The Tiger run defense was among the best in the Big 12 last year, but Nevada ran for 218 yards and two scores and there were times when teams that wanted to run, did. Illinois didn’t have much success in last year’s loss and had to crank up the passing game to try to stay alive, but the offensive line is good enough to control the action from the start. On the other side, Missouri's running game takes a serious hit with the loss of Derrick Washington, who was suspended after being charged with sexual assault.
Why Missouri Might Win: Illinois hasn’t stopped a decent passing game in years, and it’s not going to keep the Tigers under wraps. This is a veteran Illinois secondary, but the interceptions have been lacking and there aren’t enough big plays likely to come to slow down Blaine Gabbert and an air attack that should be the best in the Big 12. Unless the Illini have come up with a few new wrinkles, the defensive front won’t get to Gabbert and won’t get into the backfield to provide enough pressure to slow things down. Making life harder is the loss of Illinois starting CB Terry Hawthorne, who’ll miss the first part of the season with a broken foot. Either Illinois has to keep up in a shootout, or it’ll be another year with another ugly start. That means all the pressure is on …
What To Watch Out For: … new starting quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase. There was a little bit of a quarterback controversy this offseason when Jacob Charest left the program after he didn’t get the starting job, and longtime backup Eddie McGee (who rocked against the Tigers in an ill-fated comeback attempt a few years ago) is only a wide receiver, so it’ll be up to the 6-3, dual-threat redshirt freshman to come out roaring. Scheelhaase is the franchise for the foreseeable future, and if he’s not fantastic from the moment he steps on the field, the Illini will get blown out.
What Will Happen: The Illini defense could be a pleasant surprise as the Big Ten season goes on, but the offense won’t get enough out of the ground game to overcome an inconsistent day from Scheelhaase. Gabbert will throw for 300 yards as the Tigers pull away in the second half for a decisive and impressive opening day win.
CFN Prediction: Missouri 37 … Illinois 26 … Line: Missouri -13
Must See Rating: Season Premiere: Keeping Up with the Kardashians 5 - Eat, Pray, Love 1 … 3.5
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Northern Illinois (0-0) at Iowa State (0-0) Sept. 2, 8:00, CSN

Here’s The Deal … These two played a wild two-game series with NIU pulling off a 24-16 home shocker in 2003 and Iowa State winning a thrilling 48-41 shootout in 2004. This year’s matchup is even more important for the two programs with Iowa State needing every non-conference win possible to get in the hunt for a bowl game, while NIU has to come up with the victory over a mediocre Big 12 team to give the MAC a little bit of respect. The Huskies should battle Temple for the honor of being the league’s best team, and if they get blown away, it’ll be tough for anyone to pay much attention to anything else the MAC does. This is the start of a rough stretch of four road games in five weeks to open the season for NIU, while ISU has to deal with the always-tough rivalry date with Iowa next week.
Why Northern Illinois Might Win: The Huskie offensive line could dominate the ISU defensive front. The Cyclone coaching staff is fantastic and there’s hope for production to come in a high-energy, want-to sort of way, but the talent is lacking. There isn’t a sure-thing pass rusher to count on and the size isn’t there to hold up is NIU starts blasting away. The Huskies have loaded up on the offensive front after a bit of a disappointing season, and now the ground game could be dominant at times.
Why Iowa State Might Win: Can NIU handle the Iowa State ground game? Overall, the numbers were great for the Huskie defense last year, but Dan LeFevour and the CMU offense rolled up 257 yards and two scores on the ground. The Cyclone backfield can get in a groove with QB Austen Arnaud and RB Alexander Robinson likely to combine for about 150 yards even though the NIU linebackers might be among the best in the MAC. The defensive line has potential, but it’ll have to hold up against the zone-blocking scheme the ISU line runs extremely well.
What To Watch Out For: And the starting NIU quarterback will be … ? Chandler Harnish is the veteran who’ll end up playing a big role in some way, shape or form, but injuries have been a problem and it’ll be hard for the team to count on him for a full season. DeMarcus Grady was a great recruit and is more of a rushing option with a live arm. A veteran, he’ll see time this year no matter who the starter is, and then there’s Jordan Lynch, the high-riser of the group this offseason getting his live arm into the race. Iowa State has to prepare for the possibility of all three.
What Will Happen: This should go down to the wire with both running games gouging the opposing run defense. The Cyclones have a better quarterback situation with Arnaud likely to be the difference maker, and even though RB Chad Spann should be able to crank out over 100 yards, the NIU offense won’t be consistent enough to pull out the big road win.
CFN Prediction: Iowa State 20 … Northern Illinois 13 … Line: Iowa State -3.5
Must See Rating: Season Premiere: Keeping Up with the Kardashians 5 - Eat, Pray, Love 1 … 3
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Colorado (0-0) vs. Colorado State (0-0) at Denver Sept. 4, 2:00, Mtn.

Here’s The Deal … Last year, the two rivals came into their annual war thinking the game would be the start of a big turnaround. Colorado State won 23-17 showing off a decent deep passing game, and while Colorado lost, it didn’t play all that poorly (at least not for the entire 60 minutes). Both teams ended 3-9 with the Rams blowing their last nine games and the Buffs struggling to close with a one-point win over Texas A&M as the lone victory over the last five games. Dan Hawkins is on the hottest of hot seats, and a second straight loss in the series would be disastrous, while CSU head man Steve Fairchild could desperately use a win to start to erase the bad memories of the last two months of last season. If nothing else, this should be an entertaining, close game with seven of the last ten games decided by a touchdown or less. Colorado has to go to California next week and has Georgia and Missouri still to deal with in the first half of the season, while the Rams get to deal with Nevada’s running game next week.
Why Colorado Might Win: If Colorado’s passing game is ever going to work, this would be the game. There’s plenty of speed, athleticism, and potential in the CSU secondary, but the pass defense was abysmal at times. Considering there won’t be much of a pass rush to rely on, the Rams have to do something special against a Buff passing game that stunk in way too many games last season, but has the receiving corps in place to possibly be special at times this year. The Rams won’t have the passing attack to mount a big comeback if they get down early.
Why Colorado State Might Win: If Colorado State’s pass rush is ever going to work, this would be the game. The Rams were able to come up with 24 sacks, but didn’t make nearly enough tackles for loss. CU has an NFL talent on the offensive front in Nate Solder, but there hasn’t been any cohesion over the last few years and there’s been too much shuffling. The Buff front five did nothing to protect the quarterback last year allowing 44 sacks, and the ground game was non-existent finishing 113th in the nation. There’s enough experience to be better, but the play has improve by leaps and bounds to be any sort of a plus.
What To Watch Out For: There was a fight for the starting Colorado State quarterback job this offseason, but true freshman Pete Thomas was always the one with the inside track. Will this be a case of taking a step back to take a gigantic leap forward? Thomas is a 6-5 pro-style passer with a big-time arm and the smarts to be courted by Harvard, and he was a fantastic get for the program. This is his offense and his team from the start, so anything positive he’s able to do will get the Ram fans jacked up for the possibilities of the next four years.
What Will Happen: Colorado is just experienced enough to get through a game like this. The Buffs might not be all that great, but CSU has way too many question marks on both sides of the ball and have more problems to deal with. It’ll be yet another entertaining rivalry game with several twists and turns, but in the end, the Buffs will find just enough of a running game to take control late.
CFN Prediction: Colorado 26 … Colorado State 21 … Line: Colorado -12.5
Must See Rating: Season Premiere: Keeping Up with the Kardashians 5 - Eat, Pray, Love 1 … 2.5
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Texas (0-0) vs. Rice (0-0) Sept. 4, 3:30 ET, ESPN

Here’s The Deal … Texas is never in rebuilding mode after nine straight 10-win seasons, but there is a sense that the program could be a little more vulnerable than in recent years. The ‘Horns lost a handful of key players to the NFL, and winning back-to-back Big 12 titles for the first time ever is going to require some underclassmen to mature quickly. Most notably, Garrett Gilbert, who made an unexpected appearance in the national championship game, is preparing to replace Colt McCoy on a full-time basis. Texas has two weeks to mesh before taking its first real test with a Sept. 18 trip to Lubbock. Rice authored its own 10-win season back in 2008, but was unable to turn it into a trend, losing 10 games, including the first nine, a year ago. The Owls are determined to bounce back, with the help of some talented transfers, realizing that all of the goodwill from two years ago might dissipate if they don’t.
Why Texas Might Win: This is a great spot for Gilbert to begin getting comfortable with his new supporting cast on offense. Rice is home to one of the nation’s worst defenses, showing no muscle against the run or the pass. The ‘Horns will try to get him a considerable amount of snaps, while tinkering with an offensive line breaking in three new starters. Although there’s no clear-cut focal point at the skill positions, there’s ample depth which means the Owls will have to show up for all 60 minutes. It’ll be worth paying special attention to the diverse trio out of the backfield, Tre’ Newton, Fozzy Whittaker, and Cody Johnson, who could all get at least 10 carries to ramble through a toothless Rice D.
Why Rice Might Win: As has been the case for the past few seasons, the Owls will fly only as far as the offense will take them. It’s a good thing there’s some talent to start building around. At quarterback, Alabama transfer Nick Fanuzzi has held off Miami transfer Taylor Cook, with the goal of picking up where he left off at the end of last year. He throws a nice ball and has a much better feel for the offense than last summer. The running game is hoping to get an immediate boost from Michigan transfer Sam McGuffie, a major signing by Rice and the type of back who can help transform an offense with his speed and explosiveness.
What To Watch Out For: It’s Texas, so new national headline makers have a habit of emerging every fall. This season, DE Sam Acho is on the tarmac now that Sergio Kindle and Lamarr Houston have graduated. He played well from the shadows, making 13 tackles for loss and nine sacks, but those numbers could be crushed if the staff doesn’t shift him inside too often to help bolster defensive tackle.
What Will Happen: Reliant Stadium will be packed, as fans in Houston relish the opportunity to see the mighty Longhorns outside of Austin. Texas could be a little sluggish out of the blocks, but it won’t be enough to give hope to Rice. The Owls have to pass to be successful, which won’t happen consistently against one of the nation’s better defensive backfields. The ‘Horns will pile up the takeaways, giving Gilbert and the offense a short fence to reach.
CFN Prediction: Texas 44 … Rice 13 … Line: Texas -28.5
Must See Rating: Season Premiere: Keeping Up with the Kardashians 5 - Eat, Pray, Love 1 … 2
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UCLA (0-0) at Kansas State (0-0) Sept. 4, 3:30 ET, ABC

Here’s The Deal … UCLA and Kansas State hook up for a second straight September in a home-and-home series that has the Bruins making their first-ever trek to Manhattan. This could be a watershed season in Westwood for Rick Neuheisel, who spent his first two years going 11-14 and building up the overall talent pool. Considering his last few recruiting classes and the problems being faced by USC across town, another 7-6 season that ends in an EagleBank Bowl equivalent will be labeled a disappointment. All things considered, Bill Snyder was better than expected in his return to the sidelines for Kansas State, breaking even and darn near stealing the Big 12 North. Like this week’s opponent, the Wildcats are going to need much more consistency from the quarterback position in order to climb another rung in the conference hierarchy.
Why UCLA Might Win: Even without some stars from a year ago, the Bruin defense has a chance to be stout this fall. There’s All-American potential with LB Akeem Ayers and FS Rahim Moore, and a wave of talented young athletes just itching for an opportunity to contribute on the two-deep. In Kansas State, they’ll be facing a one-trick offense that’ll sputter in the passing game as it searches for a capable quarterback and receivers. In an evenly-matched game, UCLA has a huge edge on special teams with the all-star combination of PK Kai Forbath and P Jeff Locke.
Why Kansas State Might Win: There’s one superstar in this game capable of completely taking it over. And he’ll be wearing purple. Wildcat Daniel Thomas is a legitimate pro-caliber back, with the power to wear down opposing defenses, especially in warm weather. He’ll be the workhorse who softens a Bruin D that has questionable tackles and will be soft in the middle. UCLA’s line problems don’t stop on defense. The offensive line is also young and inconsistent, an encouraging sign for disruptive end Brandon Harold, who’s playing his first game since last September’s season-ending knee injury.
What To Watch Out For: No single player holds the fate of the Bruins in his hands more than sophomore QB Kevin Prince. Predictably sporadic in his first year under center, the staff is hoping he can stay healthy and begin maximizing all of his potential. He’s not alone in this process, but no one will be carrying more weight for an offense that desperately needs a cover boy.
What Will Happen: This has all the markings of a sloppy game that gets dominated by the special teams units. Advantage UCLA. Neither team will produce a lot of offense, and turnovers will be common, but when the Bruins do drive, Forbath will cap it with a long field goal. It’ll be the difference they need to get out of Kansas with an important road victory.
CFN Prediction: UCLA 23 … Kansas State 17 … Line: UCLA -2
Must See Rating: Season Premiere: Keeping Up with the Kardashians 5 - Eat, Pray, Love 1… 2
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Western Kentucky (0-0) at Nebraska (0-0) Sept. 4, 7:00, TV

Here’s The Deal … Western Kentucky is on a 20-game losing streak, and while it improved at the end of last year losing the final three games in good battles, it was still an ugly year. The start of 2010 isn’t going to be much better with a lamb-for-a-slaughter payday as Nebraska goes on its Big 12 Farewell Tour. The Huskers have one decent non-conference game at Washington, but they’re not exactly taxing themselves before starting out the conference campaign against Kansas State in early October. If this is seen as a preseason game and a chance to get better and improve, then this game is all about getting the passing attack going to give Nebraska some semblance of a dangerous offense to go along with its frothing-at-the-mouth defense. For WKU, anything positive would be a plus as it begins its tour of games against BCS conference teams. The Hilltoppers go to Kentucky next week.
Why Western Kentucky Might Win: WKU might have the best running back in this game. Junior Bobby Rainey is a small, quick back who averaged 6.5 yards per carry and came on late in the year. The offensive line is hardly going to shove around the Husker defensive front, but it’s one of the team’s bigger strengths and should be able to open a few holes to get Rainey a wee bit of space. It’s not like Rainey is going to go ballistic, but he could crank out a few first downs to keep the offense moving early on. New head coach Willie Taggart is running head coach who’ll commit to the ground game, but he’ll be challenged to get anything consistently going since …
Why Nebraska Might Win: … Nebraska finished ninth in the nation against the run and should be at least that strong again. Sure, the line is missing a very big, very rich Heisman finalist in the middle to make things happen, but the returning players are good enough to pick up the slack in a hurry. Throw in the desire of the starting front four to prove that they can still be great without Ndamukong Suh, and sprinkle in the brutal ugliness of the WKU passing game, and the potential is there for Nebraska to gain more yards on the first two drives than the defense will allow all game long.
What To Watch Out For: Yeah, yeah, yeah, Nebraska has quarterback issues and a bit of a controversy, but Tom Osborne could line up under center and the team would still be fine thanks to the defense. The real issue early on will be on the outside of the line where Mike Smith, a key starter on last year’s line and a part of the rotation at several spots going into this year, will be out for the season with a broken leg, while Dreu Young, a spot-starter at tight end, is done with a back problem. The Huskers have replacements, and tight end and tackle aren’t quite their most pressing problems (that would be quarterback, where Zac Lee, Cody Green, and Taylor Martinez are all battling it out), but the offense can’t afford to lose too many key players.
What Will Happen: WKU will be lucky to finish with positive rushing yards and will be really, really lucky to put points on the board. This is when the Husker defense starts to establish its dominance and shows that there’s no rebuilding needing to be done.
CFN Prediction: Nebraska 45 … Western Kentucky 0 … Line: Nebraska -37
Must See Rating: Season Premiere: Keeping Up with the Kardashians 5 - Eat, Pray, Love 1 … 1.5
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Washington State (0-0) at Oklahoma State (0-0) Sept. 4, 7:00 ET, FSN

Here’s The Deal … Although Oklahoma State has rolled to four straight bowl games and back-to-back nine-win seasons, it’ll be anything but business as usual in Stillwater. The Cowboys will be navigating the new season with a mess of new personnel on both sides of the ball and an offensive system that’ll use plenty of four-wide sets. In the ultra-competitive Big 12 South, Mike Gundy and his staff will need to do a lot of heavy lifting just to keep the program from sliding in the pecking order. It’s the third year for Wazzu head coach Paul Wulff, and there’s still no end in sight for the program’s futility. The Cougars have gone just 3-22 over the last two seasons, playing as poorly as any school within the six BCS conferences. Having used a ton of young players since arriving, Wulff is hoping to get a bump as those kids shed their inexperience.
Why Washington State Might Win: After using QB Jeff Tuel as a rookie in 2009, the Cougars are expecting much bigger things out of the passing game this season. Despite having no experience, he was sharp in his debut, displaying pocket poise and an ability for spreading the ball around. He’ll have enough options, such as Jared Karstetter, Daniel Blackledge, and Gino Simone, to exploit an Oklahoma State defense that’s replacing both cornerbacks and is bringing back just a pair of starters from the back seven.
Why Oklahoma State Might Win: Yeah, there could be some early hiccups, but Dana Holgorsen’s new passer-friendly offense will still be a handful for the leaky Washington State D. Equally porous against the pass as the run, the Cougars lack the stoppers to contain a complex and diverse attack. Former New York Yankee farmhand Brandon Weeden has a strong arm and an untapped corps of talented receivers that includes Hubert Anyiam, Justin Blackmon, Josh Cooper, and Tracy Moore. Regardless of the new scheme, the Cowboys must find ways to get the ball to RB Kendall Hunter, the 2008 All-American who was never full healthy last year.
What To Watch Out For: The return of LB Orie Lemon, who received a medical redshirt after tearing his ACL, provides an enormous boost to a young Cowboy defense that’s going to need it. He’ll obviously need a lot of help, but his veteran leadership and playmaking ability will result in a monster final year and all-star recognition. Whatever rust that still exists from the layoff should be washed away on Saturday by adrenaline.
What Will Happen: Washington State is a little better than a year ago. Oklahoma State, a little worse. That said, the Cowboys still won’t have too many problems shooing aside a Cougar team that has a long way to go before becoming truly competitive. While many of the names are new, the Pokes possess a nice collection of playmakers, who’ll help Weeden get off to a fast start as Zac Robinson’s successor behind center.
CFN Prediction: Oklahoma State 38 … Washington State 16 … Line: Oklahoma State -14.5
Must See Rating: Season Premiere: Keeping Up with the Kardashians 5 - Eat, Pray, Love 1… 2
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Utah State (0-0) at Oklahoma (0-0) Sept. 4, 7:00

Here’s The Deal … Utah State is far better, far more talented, and far more promising under second year head man Gary Andersen, and there’s a good chance that if everything breaks right, this could be a surprise bowl season for a program that has known little success. While 2010 could be a breakthrough season, sort of like Idaho enjoyed last year, it’s not going to start in Norman. Oklahoma lost its opener to BYU last year in a Sam Bradford shoulder-crunching disaster, but that game was played in Texas. The Sooners go ballistic in their home openers winning their last three by a total score of 200 to 12. While USU might be better than the Idaho State, UT Chattanooga, and North Texas teams that were caught in the past of recent destructions, this should mostly be an exercise in seeing what the OU attack can do before dealing with Florida State. Considering the way OU struggled at the end of last year, anything less than complete and total annihilation will set off panic sirens.
Why Utah State Might Win: The Aggies need to win the turnover battle by a ten-mile wide margin to keep this from becoming brutal. They finished 24th in the nation in turnover margin last season, and while the Sooners finished 36th, quarterback Landry Jones had his rough patches with 14 interceptions on the year. Five came in one game against Nebraska as he threw at least one in four of the last five games.
Why Oklahoma Might Win: Utah State is lacking in offensive playmakers. USU has to come up with several big plays. RB Robert Turbin cranked out 1,296 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns last season, but he tore his ACL this offseason and hasn’t been able to recover in time for the season. Making matters even worse is the loss of Stanley Morrison, the team’s leading receiver, to a broken foot. The hope was for the nation’s 15th ranked offense to be ready to rock and roll in a huge season, but that’s not going to happen unless it gets a huge game from …
What To Watch Out For: The only hope the Aggies have of keeping this close is if QB Diondre Borel gets on the move. Borel, who ranked 15th in the nation in total offense and led the WAC, is a tremendous all-around talent and the type of baller who can try to keep plays alive and give the OU defense a few major fits. The rest of the players might not be in place to keep up in any sort of a shootout, but if Borel can get hot for a stretch, this could be a wee bit more interesting than the Sooners might like.
What Will Happen: The Sooners will stretch their legs a little bit. The defensive front seven will bottle up Borel, and there won’t be nearly enough support from the rest of the Aggies to pick up the slack in any way. OU will call off the dogs in the fourth quarter and will still win in a walk.
CFN Prediction: Oklahoma 48 … Utah State 3 … Line: Oklahoma -31.5
Must See Rating: Season Premiere: Keeping Up with the Kardashians 5 - Eat, Pray, Love 1 … 1.5
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Sam Houston State (0-0) at Baylor (0-0) Sept. 4, 7:00

Here’s The Deal … All that really matters is watching Robert Griffin do his thing again. Baylor’s star quarterback is back from the torn ACL that end his 2009 season and ruined the team’s year, but now he’s back and appears to be back to form. The Bears shouldn’t have a problem getting by a Sam Houston State team that will struggle to get out of the Southland basement. The Bearkats had a decent 2009 going 5-6 thanks to an aggressive defense and a strong passing attack, but this is a rebuilding year with most of the key players from last year gone.
Why Sam Houston State Might Win: The Bearkats were fantastic last season at coming up with tackle for loss, and there should be more success this year, even with six starters gone, against a Baylor offensive line that should be the team’s biggest weakness. Linebacker Will Henry is a great all-around playmaker and he’ll be turned loose to spy on Griffin to try to keep the big runs to a minimum, while the offense will go for broke and will start bombing away from the start/
Why Baylor Might Win: SHSU doesn’t have the offense to keep up. Only three starters are back from an inconsistent attack that only managed three points and 241 yards in the one game against an FBS team in a 56-3 loss to Tulsa. This year’s Baylor team is far better than that Golden Hurricane squad and should be able to rip apart a defense that might be aggressive, but also finished 111th among FCS teams last season. The Bearkat defensive line will struggle to keep Griffin from getting on the move.
What To Watch Out For: All the talk will be about Griffin and his knee, or RB Jay Finley and his ankle, but the Bears have another weapon in WR Kendall Wright, who’s in line to have another tremendous year after catching 116 passes for 1,389 yards and nine scores in his first two years. The 5-10, 185-pound speedster has good hands, dependable route running ability, and is athletic enough to be used as a runner carrying the ball 28 times for 132 yards and a score. A guard for the Baylor basketball team, he has a 40” vertical to go along with his tremendous wheels.
What Will Happen: Griffin will be fantastic, Baylor will have few problems, and all will be right with the Bears’ world in a nice preseason layup before taking on Buffalo next week.
CFN Prediction: Baylor 48 … Sam Houston State 10 … Line: No Line
Must See Rating: Season Premiere: Keeping Up with the Kardashians 5 - Eat, Pray, Love 1 … 1.5
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Stephen F. Austin (0-0) at Texas A&M (0-0) Sept. 4, 7:00

Here’s The Deal … As far as FCS teams go, Stephen F. Austin is about as good as it gets. The Lumberjacks won the Southland Conference last season before getting blasted 51-0 by Montana in the FCS playoffs. They should be the class of the league yet again with a high octane passing attack that put up 92 points on Texas College last season and pushed SMU in a 31-23 loss. However, as good as SFA should be, Texas A&M should be taking target practice with one of the nation’s best offenses that’s looking to tune up over the next few weeks against relative cupcakes before starting the Big 12 season at Oklahoma State. The Aggies will win, but they could be in for more than just a light scrimmage if the Lumberjacks play up to their capabilities.
Why Stephen F. Austin Might Win: the Lumberjacks are loaded with FCS talent. QB Jeremy Moses ran the spread to near perfection last season completing 68% of his throws for 4,124 yards and 40 touchdowns, and he can run a little bit, too. On the other side, linebacker Jabari Williams is one of the FCS’s best defenders coming off a 113 tackle season. This is a veteran, skilled team that has just enough moxie and just enough speed and athleticism to provide a big push deep into the game if A&M isn’t focused.
Why Texas A&M Might Win: Yes, SFA might have a high-octane offense, but Moses gives the ball away way too much throwing 21 interceptions last season. Without his top two running backs from last year to hand off to, Moses will have to force things a little bit in an attempt to keep up the pace, and that could become a huge problem as the game goes on against an improved Aggie defense that should get a big year out of its secondary. As a team, the Lumberjacks lost the ball 36 times and aren’t likely to be stingy this year.
What To Watch Out For: Can A&M QB Jerrod Johnson find his form right away? He has a loaded offense around him highlighted by one of the nation’s most dangerous receiving corps, but he struggled a bit too much this offseason partly because of a shoulder problem. He had surgery right after the season was over, but he was still having a few problems and wasn’t back to form. How long will he stay on the field? Will the coaching staff risk aggravation? In a perfect world, he’s lights out for a half and then gets to watch the last 30 minutes from the sidelines.
What Will Happen: This will be fun. The Lumberjacks won’t have enough in the bag to be able to keep up the pace, but they’ll come up with just enough points to annoy Aggie fans. Johnson will be just shaky enough to scare them.
CFN Prediction: Texas A&M 55 … Stephen F. Austin 20 … Line: No Line
Must See Rating: Season Premiere: Keeping Up with the Kardashians 5 - Eat, Pray, Love 1 … 2
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North Dakota State (0-0) at Kansas (0-0) Sept. 4, 7:00, FCS Central

Here’s The Deal … The Turner Gill era begins in Lawrence as the Jayhawks try to put the disaster of the end of the Mark Mangino era, and the collapse at the end of the season, in the past. With Georgia Tech coming up next week, KU needs all the time and all the work it can get to be ready, and it’ll get it against an NDSU team that should have a problem getting into the top half of the Missouri Valley College. The Bison burst onto the FCS scene in 2007 with a 10-1 campaign highlighted by a win over Minnesota, but last year’s 3-8 campaign was major disappointment. The offense has the potential to be dangerous, but KU should be able to roll without much of a problem as long as everything is working. The Jayhawks have plenty of rebuilding and lots of work to do, and they need this game to be able to implement all that Gill and his staff want to do.
Why North Dakota State Might Win: The Bison aren’t totally starting from scratch at some key positions, including quarterback where Jose Mohler is ready to do more after seeing a few starts last year and winning a tough battle for the job. The 6-0, 170-pound sophomore was strong at the end of last season finishing with 635 passing yards and six touchdowns with two interceptions in his final four games, and he’ll be allowed to push the ball down the field a little more. NDSU is a running team, but it could keep the KU defense on its toes with a balanced attack.
Why Kansas Might Win: The Kansas passing game should be able to dink and dunk the Bison to deal. NDSU was among the worst teams in the FCS in pass efficiency defense despite coming up with a decent pass rush, but this year’s KU line should be able to provide enough time for the skill players to work and the solid receiving corps should be able to light up the mediocre Bison secondary. KU will try to find a little bit of balance early on, but this game will be all about the improvement of …
What To Watch Out For: KU new starting quarterback Kale Pick had better be great. The sophomore earned the job late in fall camp because he had a great knack for not screwing up, but freshman Jordan Webb wasn’t exactly thrilled to be passed over. Webb is a phenomenal athlete with great rushing skills (and he could play), but the 6-1, 208-pound Pick also can move the ball on the ground and has a slightly better passing touch. No one’s expecting Todd Reesing right away, but Pick has to show that he can be the one to make the offense close to as explosive as it was under Mangino.
What Will Happen: NDSU will be better than expected this year, but the lines aren’t nearly good enough to hold up against either side of the KU line. Gill will try to establish the ground game right away, and while it might not always work, it’ll be effective enough by the second half to put the game away. Iowa State got a shove in a 34-17 win against the Bison last year, but it won’t be quite that tough for the Jayhawks in this year’s season opener.
CFN Prediction: Kansas 37 … North Dakota State 14 … Line: No Line
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SMU (0-0) at Texas Tech (0-0) Sept. 5, 3:30 ET, ESPN

Here’s The Deal … You don’t get better by losing a coach with all of the charisma and ingenuity of Mike Leach. Or do you? Faced with the difficult task of replacing a popular architect, Texas Tech did about as well as it could, hiring Tommy Tuberville out of retirement. A success during stints with Ole Miss and Auburn, he inherits a team that has veteran talent on both sides of the ball and a chance to flirt with the Top 25 with a road upset along the way. While the Red Raiders will have different looks on offense and defense, another winning season and an 11th straight bowl game remain the absolute bare minimum in Lubbock. SMU is facing no such transition on the sidelines. In fact, the school would be happy to ink June Jones to a lifetime contract. In just two years, he already has the Mustangs relevant, capping an 8-5 season with their first bowl game in a quarter-century. Suddenly among the Conference USA elite, they can really seize momentum by shocking a Big 12 opponent.
Why SMU Might Win: With Jones calling the shots in Dallas, it’s all about the passing game these days. Two years into the run-and-shoot, the Mustangs are beginning to attract the right personnel to really make the system purr. In young Kyle Padron, the program believes it has the next prolific passer in Jones’ stable of hurlers. He was beginning to bloom toward the end of his first season on campus, torching Nevada in the Hawaii Bowl in an MVP performance. Led by Aldrick Robinson, he’ll be throwing to a group of shifty receivers who’ll create match up problems with the Red Raider defensive backs.
Why Texas Tech Might Win: While the SMU defense was opportunistic under Tom Mason, it wasn’t exactly stout a year ago. Even with the loss of four offensive linemen, the Red Raiders will be able to bully the smallish Mustangs, allowing a slightly more balanced offense to emerge. The passing game brings back veteran QB Taylor Potts and a slew of veteran receivers, including Alex Torres, Lyle Leong, Detron Lewis, and Tramain Swindall. Mix in the running of Baron Batch, and SMU won’t have the answers to slow down the Texas Tech offense.
What To Watch Out For: Few Red Raider players are more excited about the shift in offensive philosophy than Batch, who’s going to get more chances to shine as a traditional runner. He’ll still be used plenty as a receiver out of the backfield, but after averaging more than five yards a carry over two seasons, don’t be shocked if he explodes into an attractive NFL prospect with Tuberville around.
What Will Happen: Texas Tech gets its first opportunity to show the world that there is indeed life after Leach. Tubby’s team will be more physical, more balanced, and less predictable on both sides of the ball. Oh, and it’ll also keep winning more than it loses. The Red Raiders will yield yards to SMU, but make up for it with a potent new-look offense that the Mustangs won’t be able to stop.
CFN Prediction: Texas Tech 37 … SMU 21 … Line: Texas Tech -13.5
Must See Rating: Season Premiere: Keeping Up with the Kardashians 5 - Eat, Pray, Love 1 … 2.5
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