Big 12 Saturday, November 17th

Iowa State (3-8) at Kansas (10-0)  3:30 PM ABC
Why to watch: Normally one of the most ignored games on the Big 12 schedule, now the glare of the national spotlight is on as Kansas tries to get through this week before the showdown with Missouri in Kansas City. The Jayhawks might be ranked third in the latest BCS poll, but a skeptical nation is still waiting for something more than just a win over Oklahoma State. Beating Iowa State wouldn't exactly get the world on the KU bandwagon, but a close call of any kind in the final home game of the year would help Oregon and others immeasurably. The Cyclones aren't just going to be a pushover with two straight wins and all the pressure off. Gene Chizik's club is playing just well enough to be yet another spoiler in this wild season.
Why Iowa State might win: Iowa State has figured out how to start playing some offense. Painfully bad for most of the first eight games of the season, the infusion of young players has provided a desperately needed spark. While hardly Texas Tech when it comes to cranking out yards, the Cyclones are taking advantage of every opportunity now and has figured out how to finally start getting into the end zone. The Kansas defense isn't nearly as good as the statistics might suggest. As Oklahoma State and Nebraska showed, the secondary can be bombed on. However ...
Why Kansas might win: ... it's not like the Cyclones are going to throw 300 passing yards on the board. Outside of a few big plays to Todd Blythe in last week's win over Colorado, the Iowa State passing game has way too inconsistent to roll for a full sixty minutes in a game like this. Fine, so Kansas might not be full of a who's who of pro prospects like LSU and Oklahoma, but no one is playing more efficiently on offense. To beat Kansas, Iowa State has to not only be perfect, it has to force several mistakes and that's not going to happen. The Cyclones don't force turnovers, while KU leads the nation in turnover margin. The Jayhawks lead the country in kickoff returns averaging 30.19 yards per try, while ISU is 115th averaging 17.78 yards per return, and is dead last in punt returns averaging 3.25 yards per try.
Who to watch: It's the final game in the long and interesting careers of the Iowa State pitch-catch combination of Bret Meyer to Todd Blythe. The roommates have been mainstays of the program for the last four years with Blythe catching 174 passes averaging 17.67 yards per grab with 31 touchdowns, while Meyer has produced 10,310 yards of total offense with 50 touchdown passes and 12 scoring runs. The two hooked up for two touchdowns last week, and will likely be bombing away this week to keep up with the KU attack.
What will happen: Iowa State will put up a much, much bigger fight than Kansas might like. The Jayhawks have too good at answering scores with scores of their own and will be able to handle a little bit of adversity to get the win, but it'll be a bit of a battle.
CFN Prediction: Kansas 40 ... Iowa State 23 ... Line: Kansas -25
Must See Rating: (5 On HBO, "Michigan vs. Ohio State: The Rivalry"  - 1 Writer strike induced reruns) ... 2.5

Missouri (9-1) at Kansas State (5-5) 12:30 PM
Why to watch: Trap ... TRAAAAAP. Missouri is rolling along at 9-1 on a dominant four-game winning streak and with a shot at being in the national title discussion if it wins this week, beats Kansas, and wins the Big 12 title game over (most likely) Oklahoma. Of course, this week shouldn't be a problem, right? After all, the Wildcats have lost two straight to Iowa State and Nebraska, the two worst teams in the North, by a combined score of 104 to 51. After a promising start, KSU has hit a wall over the last four weeks and now needs to win its final two games to realistically be in the mix for a bowl bid. The road trip to Fresno State next week won't be a picnic, but if the Cats can get a win over the Tigers, they won't need a plane to fly to face the Bulldogs.
Why Missouri might win: The Kansas State secondary has given up 17 touchdown passes in the last six games and is coming off a 519-yard bombing by Nebraska. Meanwhile, Missouri's passing game has hit its groove with 781 yards and eight touchdowns in the last two games to go along with a solid running game. This is a finely tuned Tiger offensive machine that should be able to overcome any adversity by finding something that works. If KSU takes away the run, Daniel will throw deep. Take away the long ball and Daniel will work underneath to his tight ends. Texas A&M actually put up more of a fight last week than than the 40-26 final score might indicate, and that might be just enough of a tight test to get Mizzou through any issues this week.
Why Kansas State might win: It's going to take something special and out of the ordinary for Kansas State to win, and that might come from the punt return game. Led by Deon Murphy, KSU leads the nation in punt returns averaging 22.06 yards per try, while the Missouri punting game has been abysmal. Murphy, at the very least, should give the Wildcats excellent field position and could turn the momentum of the game with a score. The pressure is completely and totally on the Tigers. Kansas State will come out fired up on Senior Day and should play loose. Last year, a far superior Missouri team got shocked by a miserable Iowa State squad in its final home game of the year.
Who to watch: Kansas State's Josh Freeman and Jordy Nelson. Lost in last two defeats has been the solid play from Freeman, who has bombed away for 200 yards or more in every game but one, the win over Texas. The Wildcats were able to upset the Longhorns thanks to Nelson, who caught 12 passes for 116 yards and returned a punt for a score. Nelson is a shoo-in for All-America honors with 99 catches for 1,347 yards and nine touchdowns, and he should be in for a huge game against a suspect Tiger secondary that gave up 247 yards to the ground-oriented Texas A&M.  These two need to go ballistic to pull off the upset.
What will happen: Freeman will bomb away for 400 yards and Nelson will have a jaw-dropping day, but it won't be enough. Daniel and the Tiger offense will get on a second half roll that KSU won't be able to stop.
CFN Prediction: Missouri 45 ... Kansas State 31 ... Line: Missouri -8
Must See Rating: (5 On HBO, "Michigan vs. Ohio State: The Rivalry"  - 1 Writer strike induced reruns) ... 3

Oklahoma State (5-5) at Baylor (3-8)   7:00 PM
Why to watch: With a huge week of Big 12 games, this one will get pushed aside even though it could end up being the most entertaining of the lot. Both teams desperately need a win, with Oklahoma State trying to get bowl eligible with a sixth win before facing Oklahoma. The Cowboys have lost two straight in high-profile fashion, getting their doors blown off by Texas before losing on national television to Kansas. As rough as those were, a loss to Baylor would be worse considering OSU is 10-1 in the series since the formation of the Big 12. For the Beats, an 0-7 conference record and a seven-game losing streak has all but doomed the Guy Morriss era. In what should be his final game as the BU head coach, his team should come out with guns blazing in a shootout.
Why Oklahoma State might win: Even when the Baylor attack is working, it keeps shooting itself in the foot with turnovers. The offense has only gone one game with fewer than two giveaways, while the defense hasn't done nearly enough to force any big plays of its own. The passing game gets some decent yards here and there, but not enough of them to overcome a defense that hasn't been close to slowing down anyone's passing game. How ugly have things been for the Bears? They haven't been closer than 20 points in any Big 12 game getting outscored by an average of 44 to 14.
Why Baylor might win: Does OSU have anything left in the tank? After emotional losses to Texas and Kansas, and with all mental focus likely on Oklahoma next week, Baylor could come up with just enough of a good game to pull off the upset. It's not like the Cowboys have been great on the road this year with a blowout loss to Georgia, a stunning blasting at Troy, and a loss to Texas A&M before obliterating Nebraska in Lincoln. The Cowboy pass defense is the worst in the Big 12 made possible by a lack of a pass rush. Baylor, for all its problems, has been terrific all year in pass protection. When given time, QB Blake Szymanski has been effective.
Who to watch: The time is now for Oklahoma State freshman WR Dez Bryant. A superior talent who got lost a bit in the shuffle throughout the year, he stepped up last week when Adarius Bowman went down and caught eight passes for 155 yards and a touchdown. With Bowman out for the rest of the regular season with a knee injury, it'll be up to Bryant to play an even bigger role, while Brandon Pettigrew, a solid number two target throughout the year, needs to overcome a rough one-catch day against the Jayhawks. These two will be the stars of the 2008 OSU passing game, but to get to a bowl game, they need to blow up now.
What will happen: In a big-time shootout, the two teams will combine for well over 1,000 yards of total offense. Baylor will throw at will, but it'll be the OSU running game and balance that'll win out in the fourth quarter.
CFN Prediction: Oklahoma State 48 ... Baylor 34 ... Line: Oklahoma State -15
Must See Rating: (5 On HBO, "Michigan vs. Ohio State: The Rivalry"  - 1 Writer strike induced reruns) ... 2