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WAC Fearless Predictions, Oct. 13
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Staff
CollegeFootballNews.com
Oct 11, 2007

Previews and Predictions for the Week 7 WAC Games.


WAC  
Boise State | Fresno State | Hawaii | Idaho | Louisiana Tech
Nevada | New Mexico St | San Jose State | Utah State


WAC Fearless Predictions Sept. 1Sept. 8 | Sept. 15Sept. 22 | Sept. 29 
 Oct. 6Oct. 20Oct. 27 | Nov. 3Nov. 10 | Nov. 17Nov. 24Dec. 1   

How are the picks so far? SU: 32-3 ... ATS: 18-8-1

WAC Game of the Week

WAC Friday, Oct. 12

Hawaii (6-0) at San Jose State (3-3)  8:05 p.m. ESPN
Why to Watch: Is this when Colt Brennan becomes Colt Brennan again? Here’s his chance for a national spotlight to make his statement in the Heisman race and show everyone what he can do. However, he’s not quite healthy, needing to fight through ankle and leg issues. It caused him to leave in the first half of last week’s win over Utah State, and though the ankle swelled considerably, Brennan has pledged to play this week. Not that the Warriors are in dire straits if he doesn’t, since backup Tyler Graunke was 9-of-11 for 246 yards and three scores last week. San Jose State generates some interest as well, thanks to its three-game winning streak and offensive awakening from a team that was last year’s big surprise. Can Dick Tomey put together a gameplan to stop the Warrior train?
Why Hawaii Might Win: If Brennan does play, it’s the usual bombs-away strategy for the Warriors – at peak efficiency. In the first half last week against USU, Brennan displayed the precision he had shown last year and before he was hurt. He may not have the same sharpness this week, thanks to the cranky ankle, but he has the extra motivation to rock considering this is his Heisman moment. Defensively, Hawaii’s unsung secondary should give Adam Tafralis and the Spartan passing game a slew of problems.
Why San Jose State Might Win: After struggling mightily against the BCS portion of the SJSU schedule, Tafralis has thrown for at least 300 yards in each of the last three games – all victories. Last week against Idaho, he completed 20-of-28 for 302 yards and a pair of scores. Of course, stopping Hawaii is all about being decent against the pass, and the Spartans have the secondary to give Brennan his toughest challenge yet. San Jose State is only allowing 186 yards per game through the air.
Who to Watch: Hawaii junior linebacker Solomon Elimimian has had some big games before this season, but nothing like what he did last week against Utah State, notching 20 tackles, broke up a pass, and registered a tackle for loss and a sack in the victory. The WAC Defensive Player of the Week should dominate against the feeble Spartan running game and even pepper Tafralis a bit. The 6-0, 224-pounder isn’t huge, but he is fast and can get to the ball.
What Will Happen: The Spartans may be able to hang in for a little while, especially at home, but Brennan will gut it out and have his day. It just might be a whole bunch tougher than he’d like.
CFN Prediction Hawaii 38 ... San Jose State 30.. Line: Hawaii -19
Must See Rating: (5 Hideki Matsui's "collection" - 1 The Heartbreak Kid) ... 2.5

WAC Saturday, Oct. 13

Fresno State (3-2) at Idaho (1-5) 5 p.m. GamePlan
Why to Watch: If you like the ground game, this is for you with two of the nation’s most exciting freshman backs will be on display. Both FSU’s Ryan Mathews and Idaho’s Deonte Jackson are enjoying breakout debuts, and are keying each team’s offenses. Jackson is particularly important, thanks to the hand injury to QB Nathan Enderle, and must carry the brunt of the Vandal load even more than ever. It’s also worthwhile to check out the Bulldogs, who are concluding a brutal stretch of four road games in five weeks, triumphing in two straight WAC games including a key shootout over Nevada.
Why Fresno State Might Win: Mathews. He erupted for 171 yards on just 14 carries in last week’s win over Nevada. Mathews scored three times, on runs of 3, 54 and 67 yards, with the longest coming on the first play of the second half and breaking open the game. The FSU defense hasn’t been shutting too many teams down, but it should be able to focus on Jackson and succeed, since Enderle’s injury leaves Idaho without its main man under center. Also factoring in will be Fresno’s X factor, A.J. Jefferson, an excellent return man who scooped up a blocked field goal against Nevada and returned it for a TD.
Why Idaho Might Win: Since Fresno State QB Tom Brandstater isn’t a big-time yard producer, the Vandal defense can focus on Mathews and try to force the Bulldogs to throw. Idaho will try to find as many different ways for Jackson to get the ball and hope it can shorten the game by controlling the clock, and while Brandstater has had his moments, he hasn’t exactly been consistent. Idaho QB Brian Nooy didn’t sparkle in his starting debut, but the Vandals did cause some intrigue by using true freshman Quinn Ashley in some spread packages to get him running and add a different dimension. Fresno has to prepare for the unknown.
Who to Watch: Nooy is a redshirt senior who completed 8-of-15 passes for 68 yards against San Jose State. Only throwing 24 passes last year, completing 12, for 194 yards, and after seeing a bit of time as a backup over the last few seasons, he needs to shine now that he finally gets his shot. A good athlete, he has a solid arm and a good knowledge of the game. He now must do more to get the ball downfield.
What Will Happen: Fresno State rebounded from its tough loss to Texas A&M earlier in the year to win two straight and make itself a factor in the WAC. Without Enderle, Idaho doesn’t have enough balance to stop the Bulldogs’ momentum.
CFN Prediction: Fresno State 38 ... Idaho 16 ... Line: Fresno State -10
Must See Rating: (5 Hideki Matsui's "collection" - 1 The Heartbreak Kid) ... 1.5

New Mexico State (3-3) at Louisiana Tech (1-4) 7:00 p.m. ESPN Regional
Why to Watch: While this doesn’t figure to have any ramifications in the WAC race, the Aggies remain in the hunt for a bowl and could use a win over the Bulldogs as a huge step in that direction. Getting the taste of the 58-0 loss to Boise State out of their mouths would also be a plus. The trick is doing it without starting QB Chase Holbrook (ribs), who missed three quarters of last week’s loss and is likely out this week. Louisiana Tech, meanwhile, has lost four in a row and is looking for some offensive momentum after scoring a total of 18 points in its last three games.
Why New Mexico State Might Win: Even though redshirt freshman J.J. McDermott will be starting in place of Holbrook, the NMSU passing attack is still dangerous, and features one of the nation’s best wideouts in Chris Williams and enough overall firepower to get up big early. If McDermott can get comfortable in his first career start, he’ll have ample opportunity to attack the nation’s 99th-best passing defense. The Aggie defense isn’t bad, either, and specializes in stopping the run, which is Louisiana Tech’s offensive strong suit.
Why Louisiana Tech Might Win: The Aggie offensive scheme can be maddening, with its short passes, screens and rubs, but McDermott is a greenhorn, and he can be rattled. Since LTU sacks the QB almost three times a game, expect it to put as much pressure as possible on the youngster. When the Bulldogs get the ball, they’ll try to administer copious doses of Patrick Jackson, who struggled last week but has been one of the WAC’s best backs this year.
Whom to Watch: When Holbrook couldn’t go beyond the first quarter against Boise State, McDermott came on and completed 10-of-19 passes for 57 yards and two picks. For the year, he’s 14-of-30 for 74 yards and three interceptions. The 6-5, 220-pounder sat out last season after throwing for 2,315 yards as a third-team all-stater at Cinco Ranch, HS in Katy, TX. He has promise but little experience and needs to grow up fast.
What Will Happen: Anybody who watched the Aggies sputter in last week’s loss knows that McDermott isn’t quite ready. It won't matter. The Aggie defense, despite appearances against the Broncos, isn't truly awful, while Louisiana Tech doesn't have enough offense to handle any sort of a shootout.

CFN Prediction: New Mexico State 34 ... Louisiana Tech 29 ... Line: Louisiana Tech -7
Must See Rating: (5 Hideki Matsui's "collection" - 1 The Heartbreak Kid) ... 1.5

WAC Sunday, Oct. 14

Nevada (2-3) at Boise State (4-1) 8 p.m. ESPN
Why to Watch: It’s another Sunday night appearance for the Broncos, who always shine brightest at home on national TV, even if most of the world is watching the big league; or Desperate Housewives. The 58-0 win over New Mexico State last Sunday night was frighteningly dominant, and now the Broncos want to show once again that they’re back to being the team that rolled through last year. While Boise State has cranked it up on both sides of the ball, Nevada is trying to find an identity after a freak injury sidelined its starting QB Nick Graziano. Graziano tore a tendon in his foot and is out for the year, so redshirt freshman Colin Kaepernick takes over in the nasty setting against a hot team. After losing to Fresno State 49-41, the Wolf Pack can’t afford another loss if it wants to stay alive in the WAC race.
Why Nevada Might Win: The Wolf Pack was reliant on Graziano’s skills, but Kaepernick is a redshirt freshman who launched a strong assault on the starting job during the summer and isn’t coming in out of the blue. The offense cranks out yards in bunches, partly due to a strong running attack, but it’s the system and the passing game that’ll continue to shine. Boise State might have an efficient offense, but Nevada, even with Kaepernick, should be able to keep up the pace.
Why Boise State Might Win: The Broncos have been cooking on high since their second-week loss to Washington. Offensively, QB Taylor Tharp is efficient and productive, putting up 1,209 yards and nine scores. He’s supplemented by Ian Johnson, who’s averaging 100 yards a game. But the big story for BSU is a defense that’s ranked seventh in the nation and is allowing just 15.3 points per game. You don’t just shut out New Mexico State without doing something right. Offensively, this is where Ian Johnson puts up the Heisman caliber numbers against the nation’s worst run defense. Nevada has the linebackers, but everyone’s been getting fat by pounding the ball on the porous front line.
Who to Watch: While Graziano rehabs his foot and prepares for spring drills, Kaepernick looks like he’s interested in holding onto the job for the next few years. At least that’s the way it seemed after he threw for 384 yards and four touchdowns and ran for 60 more and another score last week against Fresno State. The 6-6, 215-pound redshirt freshman threw for 1,954 yards and 25 scores as a senior at Pittman HS in Turlock, CA and has the tools to be an explosive weapon in the pocket.
What Will Happen: Kaepernick may be impressive, but he’s not enough to overcome a balanced, dangerous BSU squad. The ugly Pack run defense will prove costly yet again.

CFN Prediction
Boise State 44 ... Nevada 20... Line: Boise State -26
Must See Rating: (5 Hideki Matsui's "collection" - 1 The Heartbreak Kid) ... 2.5

   


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