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Big East Fearless Predictions, Nov. 15
Story URL: http://cfn.scout.com/2/776393.html

Richard Cirminiello
CollegeFootballNews.com

Nov 13, 2008

Rutgers (4-5) at South Florida (6-3), 12:00 EST, ESPN GamePlan
Why to watch: If you would have suggested a month ago that Rutgers, and not South Florida, would have been alive in the Big East race by this time, you might have been fitted for a thicker helmet. Yet, as the Bulls drift closer to Syracuse’s zip code, the Scarlet Knights have won three straight games to pull within a game of first place and .500. While still a longshot for a league title, the program has to be thrilled that it’s battled back and still has a good shot at a fourth consecutive bowl appearance. What has happened to the Bulls? Considered the heir apparent when it became obvious that West Virginia was having a tough year, they’ve regressed with three conference losses in the last four games. While bowl eligible, the school still needs a win to solidify its postseason chances and quiet a suddenly boisterous contingent of critics.
Why Rutgers might win: Mike Teel has apparently found whatever was missing from his game in the early part of the season. The maligned quarterback has thrown nine of his 12 touchdown passes in the last two games, helping bring out the best in speedy receivers Kenny Britt, Tiquan Underwood, and Tim Brown. With a threat of passing game, RB Kordell Young has run for almost 400 yards in the last four games. The Knights are also getting support from a defense that’s been tough on quarterbacks in a variety of different ways.
Why South Florida might win: While the Rutgers pass defense has been stingy, you can still move the ball on its run D. The Scarlet Knights are next to last in the league against the run, which is good news for shifty QB Matt Grothe and his collection of running backs. The Bulls defense hasn’t been scary this season, but it’s still among the best units in the Big East. The fifth-ranked run defense will neutralize Young, and DE George Selvie has benefited from the team’s bye week. Teel’s run of success is about to end against a disruptive, attacking defense that’ll force him into errant throws.
Who to watch: For the most part, the South Florida defense has done its job, even during this difficult stretch of three losses in the last four games. Now, it’s up to the offense to carry its weight. Grothe can’t do it all by himself, putting the onus on the skill position players to start making more plays to soften opposing defenses. It’s about time for players, like backs Benjamin Williams and Moise Plancher and receivers Taurus Johnson and Jessie Hester, to use their natural gifts to create mismatches.
What will happen: Rutgers deserves a ton of credit for not packing it in a month ago, but beating an angry South Florida team in Tampa will be too tall of an order. The Bulls will bring the Knight offense back to reality, creating turnovers and giving the offense the short field it requires to score points.
CFN Prediction: South Florida 34 … Rutgers 21 ... Line: South Florida -7.5
Must See Rating: (5 Quantum Of Solace – 1 Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa) … 3
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Friday, November 14

Cincinnati (7-2) at Louisville (5-4), 8:00 EST, ESPN2, Friday, November 14
Why to watch: Cincinnati’s upset of West Virginia in Morgantown last weekend makes this edition of the battle for the Keg of Nails a little more important than normal. The Bearcats blew a big lead to the Mountaineers, but recovered for a 26-23 overtime victory, arguably the biggest win in Brian Kelly’s two seasons at the program. With three games left, they, along with Pittsburgh, control their own destiny in the race for the Big East championship. Louisville has been a mystery all season, bouncing between contender and pretender on a weekly basis. The Cards are in trouble at this juncture, losing back-to-back games to Syracuse and Pittsburgh in ugly fashion. Three games over .500 just a couple of weeks ago, they can’t afford to fall out of the bowl picture if head coach Steve Kragthorpe hopes to stabilize his shaky job security.
Why Cincinnati might win: Big East games in November are typically won by the team that can play defense and win the turnover battle. The Bearcats have the edge in both areas. They sport a defense that’s quick up front and difficult to beat through the air. Louisville doesn’t have the receivers to change that trend against a veteran secondary headlined by Mike Mickens and DeAngelo Smith. Plus, no team has committed more turnovers than the Cardinals. Cincy flashed its defensive speed and range in last week’s win over West Virginia, becoming the first team in seven years to hold the Mountaineers under 100 yards rushing.
Why Louisville might win: Cincinnati’s inconsistent offense ensures that every game is going to be a struggle. In conference games, the Bearcats are averaging less than 20 points, and the running game has yet to take any pressure off the quarterbacks. That won’t change against a scrappy Cardinal defense that’s tough up front and No. 7 nationally at stopping the run. It’ll be strength against strength when Hunter Cantwell hand the ball to Victor Anderson, the freshman sensation, who’s been the unexpected catalyst for the Louisville ground game.
Who to watch: Cincinnati QB Dustin Grutza is almost set to return from a broken leg, but he’s not going to unseat his successor, Tony Pike. The junior has done a terrific job since coming back from an injury of his own, tossing 10 touchdown passes to just three interceptions. He ran for a score and threw the game-winning touchdown in Morgantown, and will have every opportunity to connect with Mardy Gilyard and Dominick Goodman against a sketchy Louisville secondary.
What will happen: Neither program will create much breathing room in a game that’ll be close in the second half. Cincinnati is just the sharper team at this stage of the season, playing well on defense and limiting its mistakes in the passing game. After shutting down Anderson, the Bearcats will pick off a couple of Cantwell’s passes to seize the momentum in the final quarter.
CFN Prediction: Cincinnati 24 … Louisville 17 ... Line: Cincinnati -3
Must See Rating: (5 Quantum Of Solace – 1 Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa) … 3
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Saturday, November 15

Connecticut (6-3) at Syracuse (2-7), 7:00 EST, ESPNU
Why to watch: Connecticut took a week off to get healthy and get over another loss to West Virginia that squashed its hopes for a Big East championship. Yeah, the Huskies are still mathematically alive in the conference, but a more likely scenario has them positioning in November for the best possible bowl game in December. Head coach Randy Edsall returns his alma mater, where many of the locals hope he’ll be for a dozen games next season. Although Syracuse deserves credit for showing up and playing hard every weekend, that effort hasn’t result in many happy recaps this season. The Orange will spend the final three games trying to play spoiler as head coach Greg Robinson deals with the persistent rumors that he’s on his way out.
Why Connecticut might win: The Huskies should have no problem establishing the run against the Big East’s worst defense. Donald Brown leads the country in rushing, a position he won’t relinquish Saturday night. The Connecticut defense doesn’t give up much ground or make many mistakes, which won’t bone well for the 111^th-ranked Syracuse offense. Making matters worse, starting QB Cameron Dantley left last week’s game with a leg injury and his return is uncertain.
Why Syracuse might win: Although the Connecticut defense has been solid this season, it hasn’t exactly been stellar against the run, allowing more than 200 yards on two occasions. The Orange will pin its hopes on RB Curtis Brinkley, who’s been a revelation, rushing for 966 yards in his return from an injury. If the Huskies sputter on offense and turn the ball over, common occurrences this season, a Syracuse team with nothing to lose will be dangerous.
Who to watch: Whether it’s Dantley or Andrew Robinson taking snaps for the Orange, he’s going to get acquainted with Connecticut DE Cody Brown. One of the Big East’s top pass rushers, he’s turned a hot motor and great burst into 9.5 tackles for loss and seven sacks this season. If Syracuse gives too much attention to No. 50, the Huskies have other defenders, like Julius Williams and Lindsey Witten, who’ll clean up on the other side.
What will happen: There’s no quit in Syracuse. There’s also not enough talent to beat a quality opponent, such as Connecticut. The Huskies will dominate on defense, and roll offensively behind 150 yards and three touchdowns on the ground from Brown.
CFN Prediction: Connecticut 31 … Syracuse 16 ... Line: Connecticut -10
Must See Rating: (5 Quantum Of Solace – 1 Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa) … 2
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