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Big East Fearless Predictions, Nov. 29
Story URL: http://cfn.scout.com/2/776396.html

Staff
CollegeFootballNews.com

Nov 26, 2008

West Virginia (7-3) at Pittsburgh (7-3), 12:00 EST, ABC, Friday, November 28
Why to watch: It’s the Backyard Brawl, so the intensity will be high on both sidelines, but there’s a little less at stake than many expected. Until Cincinnati took control of the Big East, it looked as if this rivalry might decide the conference champ. Now, it’ll only have an impact if the Bearcats somehow lose on Saturday to Syracuse. West Virginia is the only other team mathematically alive, and would like to pay Pittsburgh back for last season’s loss with a BCS championship berth on the line. If the Mountaineers can get to 9-3, they might get the nod from the Gator or Sun Bowl now that Notre Dame is off the table. The Panthers’ dreams of a league title disappeared with Saturday night’s loss to Cincinnati. The secondary was the culprit once again, allowing Tony Pike to go 26-of-32 for 309 yards and three touchdowns. Considering where the expectations were just a few weeks ago, Dave Wannstedt needs to avoid skidding to the finish line.
Why West Virginia might win: In the two losses that knocked Pittsburgh out of league contention, the pass defense was exposed, allowing nine touchdown passes and picking off just one against Pike and Rutgers’ Mike Teel. That’ll provide the impetus for Pat White to spend a little more time looking for receivers Jock Sanders, Dorrell Jalloh, and Alric Arnett. White has been stellar as a passer once again, throwing 17 touchdowns to just four interceptions. The Panther offensive line will continue to struggle in pass protection against a Mountaineer defense that’s had three sacks in each of the last two games, and leads the league in points allowed.
Why Pittsburgh might win: When the line is doing its job, the Panthers have as much skill position talent as anyone in the Big East. LeSean McCoy is the league’s premier back, rushing for 1,125 yards and 18 touchdowns, and QB Bill Stull has a nice collection of receivers that’s led by rookie Jonathan Baldwin. Pitt is 24^th nationally at stopping the run, which will cause problems for White and Noel Devine. West Virginia will be far less successful through the air if it’s doing so on third-and-long situations.
Who to watch: Pittsburgh LB Scott McKillop is a special player. He’ll be extra special with West Virginia in town. One of the most instinctive and relentless linebackers in the country, he’s got a Big East-best 106 tackles, 14.5 tackles for loss, and four sacks. This is one of those games and one of those opponents that could result in 20 tackles and a bunch of plays behind the line of scrimmage.
What will happen: Last year was proof that no one brings out the best in Pittsburgh more than West Virginia. Forget the fact that the Panthers underachieved last week in Cincinnati. This will be a different team. Back at home and with the talent gap between the schools narrowing, Pitt will ride 125 yards from McCoy and a solid effort from the defense to a second straight win over its rival from across the border.
CFN Prediction: Pitt 26 … West Virginia 23 ... Line: West Virginia -3
Must See Rating: (5 Football while eating Thanksgiving food – 1 Home movies after dinner) … 3.5
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Saturday, November 29

Syracuse (3-8) at Cincinnati (9-2), 12:00 EST, ESPN GamePlan
Why to watch: Beat the Orange. Play in the Orange. That’s the mantra for Cincinnati, which needs a win over Syracuse or a West Virginia loss to clinch the Big East title and a berth in the Orange Bowl. The Bearcats remained the team to beat by knocking off Pittsburgh, 28-21, before a delighted Nippert Stadium crowd. They’ve endured a spate of turnover and injuries at quarterback before settling on junior Tony Pike, who’s performed like a poor-man’s Matt Ryan. Any chance that Cincinnati would look past Syracuse went away when it shocked Notre Dame in South Bend on Saturday. The Orange has clearly gotten Brian Kelly’s attention, who’ll remind his kids all week how dangerous this weekend’s opponent can be. Even with a lame duck coach, Syracuse has played relatively well in November, also surprising Louisville earlier in the month.
Why Syracuse might win: The Orange will continue to play fast, loose, and with nothing to lose. That’s a scary mix if Cincinnati comes out tight. Syracuse has its best chance for the upset when the backfield is making plays and moving the chains. Cam Dantley has provided a spark under center, distributing the ball with a limited number of mistakes. Behind him are a couple of backs capable of playing keep-away with the Bearcat offense. Curtis Brinkley has been the team MVP, rushing for 1,104 yards and seven touchdowns. True freshman Antwon Bailey showed he’s capable of providing a shifty spark, running for 126 yards and a score in the Notre Dame upset.
Why Cincinnati might win: There are plenty of ways to beat Syracuse, but one of the easiest is to attack a secondary that’s allowed 25 touchdown passes and is getting no support from the pass rush. Pike will remain hot with the support of an explosive receiving corps. Dominick Goodman and Mardy Gilyard are the headliners, who’ve combined for 126 receptions and 16 touchdowns. While the Orange can run the ball, it’ll need more balance to consistently beat a veteran Cincinnati defense that creates turnovers and ranks 18^th nationally in run defense.
Who to watch: Last year, Connor Barwin was Cincinnati’s top tight end. This season, he’s the Big East premier sacker, a credit to his athleticism and willingness to learn a new position. Barwin has filled a void at a need area, collecting 12.5 tackles for loss and 10 sacks to go along with a ton of pressures. NFL scouts are showing interest in the senior, but have yet to decide whether he’ll be a better fit on offense or defense.
What will happen: Cincinnati has proven it’s the Big East’s top team of 2008. Now it must show it can close the deal. Realizing what’s at stake, the Bearcats will come out a little cautious before settling down and taking over in the second quarter. Pike will connect on a couple of deep balls and the defense will force three turnovers, resulting in the kind of celebration usually reserved for the university’s basketball program.
CFN Prediction: Cincinnati 34 … Syracuse 17 ... Line: Cincinnati -22
Must See Rating: (5 Football while eating Thanksgiving food – 1 Home movies after dinner) … 2.5
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